CAREER: Analysis and Measures of Risks in Modern Electric Energy Portfolio and Its Impacts on Power System Reliability: Measures, Algorithms and Applications

目的：本次电力供应风险研究的目标是建立科学的框架，并开发新的算法来测量未来电力供应的风险及其对电力系统可靠性的影响。这些方法包括将风险分析理论的最新进展扩展到开发高效的计算算法，构建间歇性和可变能源的输出模型，并将研究成果应用于制定未来电力供应风险的措施。这些风险度量将用于理解和量化大规模不确定发电资源整合对电力系统可靠性的影响。智力价值：本项目的智力价值在于其跨学科研究，将推进理解和量化未来能源供应风险及其对电力系统可靠性影响的原则、措施、算法和应用。更广泛的影响：该项目的更广泛的影响来自于基础研究和技术进步，这些研究和技术进步解决了定义可再生能源风险影响的几个关键问题。这些风险直接影响到国家能源政策的执行。更广泛的影响还反映在综合教育中，以解决一个严重的全国性问题：在不久的将来，电力工程劳动力将严重减少。该项目将促进代表性不足的群体和妇女参与电力和可再生能源研究。此外，建议向高中生推广将有助于提高他们对可再生能源的好处和风险管理必要性的认识。

Objectives: The goal of this Electric Supply Risk research is to establish scientific frameworks and to develop novel algorithms for measurement of risks in future electric energy supply and their impacts on the power system reliability. The approaches include extending the recent advances in risk analysis theory to develop efficient computational algorithms, construct output models of intermittent and variable energy resources, and apply the research outcomes to develop measures of the risks in future electric energy supply. These risk measures will be used to understand and quantify the impact of integration of large-scale uncertain generation resources on the power system reliability. Intellectual Merit:The intellectual merit of this project lies in its interdisciplinary research that will advance the principles, measures, algorithms and applications for understanding and quantifying the risks in the future energy supply and their impacts on the power system reliability. Broader Impacts:The broader impact of this project comes from the fundamental research and the technological advancement that address several key issues in defining the impact of risks from renewable energy resources. These risks directly affect the execution of the national energy policy. The broader impact is also reflected in the integrated education to address a serious nation-wide issue: severe reduction of power engineering workforce in the near future. This project will promote the participation from under-represented groups and women in power and renewable energy research. Furthermore, the proposed outreach to high school students will be helpful to increase their awareness of the benefit of renewable energy and the necessity of risk management.