Collaborative Research: Experimental Evidence on the Returns to Vocational Education in Kenya

项目摘要：“肯尼亚职业教育回归的实验证据”青年失业是欠发达国家面临的最紧迫的社会和经济问题之一，但人们对如何最好地使那些不在学术教育轨道上的人顺利从学校过渡到工作或提高人力资本知之甚少。职业教育是解决这一问题的一个有希望的途径，特别是通过充满活力的私营职业部门。该项目将使用随机设计和创新的专家小组数据集，研究职业教育券计划在肯尼亚青年中的影响。据调查人员所知，这是第一次对非洲的职业教育干预进行随机评估，并基于肯尼亚生活小组调查(KLPS)数据集中十年的详细信息。拟议研究的智力价值在于它依赖可信的研究设计和独特的数据集，以解决发展、劳工和公共经济领域的至少四个核心问题：(1)非洲教育的回报是什么？拟议的项目将评估职业教育对正规部门就业、劳动力市场收入、创业决策、移民(肯尼亚国内和国外)、汇款和生育率的影响。从KLPS数据库中抽取的大约2,160名肯尼亚失学青年申请了肯尼亚研究区的职业教育学费凭证。这些人中有一半是随机挑选出来领取代金券的，未中奖者为对照组。该项目还将利用KLP中广泛的(干预前)个人层面的数据，根据认知能力、社会经济地位和性别来评估不同的上学回报。(2)私立培训部门的职业教育回报更高吗？在代金券获得者中，随机获得一半的代金券只能在政府支持的培训中心使用，而另一半获得的代金券不受限制，既可以在公共中心使用，也可以在私人中心使用。受限(仅限政府)和非受限代金券获得者之间的结果比较将阐明进入私人中心的任何额外回报。(3)教育投资的“回报”在空间上是如何分布的？这一不同寻常的KLP小组数据集跟踪了受访者在东非的所到之处，它还将为人力资本投资如何影响外迁决策和汇款回流地区提供新的见解，从而揭示职业教育是缩小还是放大了地区间的经济差距。(4)哪些因素影响职业教育需求？该项目将就(I)价格(通过上面的学费代金券实验)和(Ii)关于职业学校平均回报的信息在决定需求方面的作用产生检验实验证据。一项基线信息实验向随机选择的一半计划申请者提供了额外的信息(包括基本统计数据和视频)，突出了(A)职业培训接受者的收入较高(横截面分析)和(B)那些接受男性主导行业(例如汽车技工)培训的人相对于女性主导行业(例如裁缝)的收入更高。调查人员将调查这些信息和鼓励是否影响了进入职业教育中心的决定和所选课程的类型。初步结果显示，这种信息处理方式对肯尼亚女性的招生决策和选课产生了很大影响，并显著转向了男性主导的课程。拟议中的项目的一个关键和更广泛的影响是对美国经济学博士学生进行现场数据收集方法和应用计量经济学方面的培训。另一个更广泛的影响是有可能影响欠发达国家的公共政策，特别是在非洲。职业教育被视为解决紧迫的青年失业问题的最有前途的途径之一，肯尼亚和许多其他非洲国家政府目前正在扩大这一领域的公共项目。该项目将为职业教育的需求和影响提供严格的证据。研究小组计划继续通过这项研究向发展政策制定积极传播成果，就像他们对以前的项目所做的那样。私人投资机构在肯尼亚拥有广泛的数据收集经验和政策联系，可以追溯到十多年前，并与一支高效的统计员团队合作。

Project Summary: "Experimental Evidence on the Returns to Vocational Education in Kenya"Youth unemployment is among the most pressing social and economic problems facing less developed countries, yet too little is known about how best to smooth the school-to-work transition or boost human capital for those not on the academic schooling track. Vocational education is one promising avenue for addressing the problem, especially through the dynamic private vocational sector. This project will study impacts of a vocational education voucher program among Kenyan youth, using a randomized design together with an innovative panel dataset. This is the first (to the investigators' knowledge) randomized evaluation of a vocational education intervention in Africa and builds on ten years of detailed information in the Kenyan Life Panel Survey (KLPS) dataset.The intellectual merit of the proposed research is its reliance on a credible research design and unique dataset to address at least four central questions in the fields of development, labor and public economics:(1) What are the returns to education in Africa? The proposed project will estimate the impact of vocational education on formal sector employment, labor market earnings, entrepreneurship decisions, migration (within Kenya and abroad), remittances and fertility. Approximately 2,160 out-of-school Kenyan youths, drawn from the KLPS dataset, applied for vocational education tuition vouchers in the Kenyan study district. Half of these individuals were randomly selected to receive vouchers, with the non-winners serving as the control group. The project will also leverage the extensive (pre-intervention) individual-level data in KLPS to estimate heterogeneous returns to schooling by cognitive ability, socioeconomic status, and gender.(2) Are returns to vocational education higher in the private training sector? Among the voucher winners, a random half received vouchers that can be used only in government-supported training centers, while the other half received unrestricted vouchers that could be used in either public or private centers. The comparison of outcomes between the restricted (government only) and unrestricted voucher winners will illuminate any additional returns to access to private centers.(3) How are the "returns" to educational investments spatially distributed? The unusual KLPS panel dataset, which tracks respondents wherever they move within East Africa, will also provide new insights into how human capital investments affect out-migration decisions and remittances back to the sending area, shedding light on whether vocational education reduces or amplifies inter-regional economic disparities.(4) What factors affect the demand for vocational education? This project will produce examine experimental evidence on both the role of (i) price (through the tuition voucher experiment above) and (ii) information about average returns to vocational schooling, in determining demand. A baseline information experiment provided additional information (including basic statistics and a video) to a randomly chosen half of program applicants, highlighting (a) the higher earnings of vocational training recipients (in a cross-sectional analysis) and (b) the higher earnings of those who receive training in male-dominated trades (e.g., automobile mechanics) relative to female-dominated trades (e.g., seamstresses). The investigators will examine whether this information and encouragement affected the decision to enroll in a vocational education center and the type of course chosen. The preliminary results show large impacts of this information treatment on the enrollment decisions and course choices of Kenyan females, with a significant shift towards male-dominated courses.A key broader impact of the proposed project is the training of Economics Ph.D. students based in the U.S. in field data collection methods and applied econometrics. Another broader impact is the possibility of influencing public policy in less developed countries, and especially in Africa. Vocational education is seen as one of the most promising avenues for addressing the pressing problem of youth unemployment, and Kenya and many other African governments are currently expanding public programs in this sector. This project will provide rigorous evidence on the demand for and impacts of vocational education. The research team plans to continue actively disseminating results to development policymaking through this research, as they have with previous projects. The PIs have extensive data collection experience and policy contacts in Kenya dating back over a decade and work with a highly effective team of enumerators.