Collaborative Research: Long-Term Effects of Unconditional Cash Transfers to the Poor

各国政府向个人和家庭进行短期收入和财富转移，以减轻贫困。这一方法的可行性取决于此类转让的长期效果。然而，关于这种短期收入转移对教育、工作和收入、资产积累和健康等几个结果的长期影响，以及有效的短期转移可能采取的形式，人们知之甚少。这项拟议的研究将使用现场实验来研究一次性无条件向低收入家庭转移现金对几个结果的长期影响，包括健康、收入和财富。这项研究将回答两个问题：一次性收入转移对接受者的长期影响是什么？转让的效果取决于转让是无条件的还是以接受者的某些行为为条件的？研究人员将比较接受无条件转移的家庭和没有接受转移的家庭的结果，以及接受相同金额但附加条件的转移的家庭的结果。这一研究项目的成果将有助于改善美国政府的转移支付计划，并在此过程中减少贫困。研究结果还将被用作制定和实施美国援助政策的投入。最后，这项研究的结果将使美国成为通过一次性收入转移减少贫困的全球领导者。世界各国政府参与财富和收入的再分配，以应对经济波动和贫困。因此，这些政策对经济、社会和政治行为的长期影响具有重要的政策意义。该项目将首次对大规模财富注入对接受者结果的长期影响进行分析。该项目建立在非政府组织GiveDirectly(GD)进行的一项大规模试验的基础上，该试验向贫困家庭提供无条件的转移。从2014年开始，广东省从653个村庄中随机抽取了接受这些转移的样本，并在选定的村庄中对11,000户家庭进行了“治疗”，让每个家庭获得1,000.00美元。在2016-2017年间进行了一次初步终点调查，调查中值是在转移交付后10个月进行的。这项研究将在转账交付约3年后进行的第二条终点线上收集和分析数据。这一衡量标准涵盖了广泛的结果，包括资产持有；消费；收入；业务收入；主观幸福感；健康状况；教育；女性赋权；食品安全；以及劳动力供应。这一研究项目的结果将有助于回答一次性现金转移是否对接受者有重大影响，以及这种影响是否取决于转移是无条件的还是有条件的。这一结果还将使美国成为通过短期收入转移计划缓解贫困的全球领导者。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Governments engage in short-term income and wealth transfers to individuals and households to alleviate poverty. The viability of this approach depends on the long-term effects of such transfers. However, little is known about the long-term effects of such short terms income transfers on several outcomes including education, work and income, asset accumulation, and health; and what form an effective short-term transfer might take. This proposed research will use field experiments to study the long-term effects of a one-time unconditional cash transfers to low income families on several outcomes, including health, income and wealth. This research will answer two questions: what are the long-term effects of one-time income transfers on recipients? Do the effects depend on whether the transfer is unconditional or conditioned on the recipients behaving in certain ways? The researchers will compare outcomes of families that received unconditional transfers to those of households that did not receive transfers as well as those who received the same amount of transfers but with conditions attached. The results of this research project will help improve the US government's transfer program and in the process, reduce poverty. The research results will also be used as inputs into formulating and implementing US aid policies. Finally, the results of this research will establish the US as the global leader on reducing poverty through one-time income transfers. Governments around the world engage in redistribution of wealth and income in response to economic fluctuations and poverty. The long-term effects of such policies on economic, social, and political behavior is therefore of policy importance. This project will provide a first-of-its-kind analysis of the long-term effects of a large-scale infusion of wealth on outcomes on recipients. The project builds on a large-scale experiment conducted by an NGO, GiveDirectly (GD), which makes unconditional transfers to poor households. Starting in 2014, GD randomized among a sample of 653 villages to receive these transfers and "treated" 11,000 households to receive $1,000.00 each in the selected villages. An initial end line survey was conducted in 2016-2017, with the median survey conducted 10 months after transfers were delivered. This research will collect and analyze data in a second end line conducted about 3 years after the transfers were delivered. The measurement encompasses a wide range of outcomes including asset holdings; consumption; income; business revenue; subjective well-being; health status; education; female empowerment; food security; and labor supply. The results of this research project will help answer whether one-time cash transfers have significant effects on recipients and whether such effects depend on the transfers being unconditional or conditional. The results will also establish the US as the global leader in poverty alleviation through short-term income transfer programs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.