International Conference on Agriculture and Development in Africa, Nairobi Kenya, December 2010

摘要非洲农业与发展问题国际会议，2010年12月，肯尼亚内罗毕关于农业在非洲增长与发展辩论中的相关性，仍存在一些相互矛盾的观点。在基本层面上，存在着一个严峻的挑战：随着人口的增长和发展中国家的持续营养不良，到2050年，世界产量需要翻一番以上。对于一些人来说，这给世界上最贫穷的国家带来了一种厄运的政策话语：由于产量持续较低，加上全球变暖的威胁，人口增长及其带来的土地压力只会让这些国家的经济不可能取得任何进展。目前，这些国家中的许多都是以农业为基础的，但仍未能为其人口提供足够的食物和营养。《2008年世界发展报告》小组呼应了这一观点，但提出了积极的议程：投资于农业是最贫穷国家发展的必要条件。在全球层面上，这肯定是正确的，因为当前的高食品价格很可能会迫使数百万最近摆脱贫困的人(尤其是亚洲人)回到贫困线以下，给基于对相对廉价的制造业工作进行投资的增长模式带来压力。生物燃料作为化石燃料的现实替代品的出现增加了进一步的压力，即使它们目前在很大程度上是由美国和欧洲的贸易扭曲推动的，从长远来看，它们的作用可能会越来越大。2008年世界发展报告认为，对于目前以农业为基础的国家(即世界上大多数最贫穷的国家)来说，农业进步，包括通过“非洲的绿色革命”，对于任何有意义的增长都是必要的。非洲经济研究联盟(AERC)、国际增长中心和美国国家科学基金会将联合主办一个致力于研究非洲农业经济学的研讨会。尤其是如何提高农业生产力，减少农村贫困，促进和加强农业与其他经济部门之间的生产性互动？本次会议的优先重点将是技术创新和采用的经济学。尽管进行了大量研究，但仍然令人震惊的是，尽管有现成的技术，但非洲的产量和产量增长继续落后于世界其他地区，而新技术的采用也很缓慢。研究不同现有市场失灵(包括信贷、保险方面的市场失灵)之间的相互作用以及技术采用的行为基础(风险和模棱两可的作用以及学习过程)及其制度基础，如土地权的性质和对积累的其他限制，仍然至关重要。有几项创新可能导致农业增长的增加，并将成为这一主题下研究的重点。第一种是转向价值更高的经济作物--例如，从玉米/高粱/基本主食或谷类作物转向蔬菜/园艺(如四季豆、雪豌豆)。这类作物通常是出口作物。第二个是物质投入的变化--特别是水/灌溉，还有化肥、种子、杀虫剂等(见上文)。例如，在肯尼亚，只有6%的地块使用灌溉(大多数地块是雨水灌溉的)。第三是生产组织和土地所有权的变化--从小的、不协调的单一家庭所有制转向更大的农场，或小农场的合作社。第四，通过改善公路和空中网络和其他基础设施，或通过发展生产者和贸易商之间的联系(上文提到的合同农业)，为农业产品打开和扩大国内外市场。第五是减少金融市场的缺陷，包括储蓄的机会、正规保险的改善以及信贷市场准入的改善。六是农业商品化进程加快。虽然生产规模的相关收益不太可能增加，但营销、储存、运输、投入品供应、零售(超市)等领域的收益可能会增加。合作的组织主题是为非洲农业合作研究建立关系。这就是为什么与会者将在相关的AERC会议的接下来的三天里留下来，为发展研究合作积累时间和空间。来自美国的讨论者将与来自非洲的研究人员可能发表的论文配对，这些论文是基于双方在潜在联合工作中申报的利益。此外，来自美国的早期职业科学家将参加会议。社会、行为和经济学委员会的社会和经济部门以及国际科学和工程办公室的非洲、近东和南亚项目将为该奖项提供资金。

AbstractInternational Conference on Agriculture and Development in Africa, Nairobi Kenya, December 2010There are still a number of competing views about the relevance of agriculture in the debate on growth and development in Africa. At a basic level, there is a serious challenge: with a growing population, and persistent malnutrition in the developing world, a more than doubling of world production is required by 2050. For some this leads to a policy discourse of doom for the poorest countries in the world: with persistently low yields, and the threat of global warming, population growth and its resulting land pressure will simply make any economic progress there impossible. Currently, many of these countries are agricultural-based, but nevertheless fail to provide sufficient food and nutrition for their populations. The World Development Report (WDR) 2008 team echoed this view but with a positive agenda: investing in agriculture is a necessary condition for development in the poorest countries. At a global level, this must be correct, as current high food prices may well push millions of (especially Asian) recent escapees from poverty back under the poverty line, putting pressure on a model of growth based on investment in relatively cheap manufacturing jobs. The emergence of biofuels as a realistic alternative for fossil fuels adds further pressure, and even if they are currently largely fuelled by trade distortions in the US and Europe, their role is likely to grow in the long-run. The WDR 2008 argued that for countries that are currently agricultural-based (i.e. most of the poorest countries in the world), agricultural progress, including via a "green revolution for Africa", are then necessary for any meaningful growth. The African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), the International Growth Center, and the US National Science Foundation jointly will sponsor a workshop devoted to research on the economics of agriculture in Africa. In particular how can agricultural productivity be improved, rural poverty be reduced, and productive interactions between agriculture and the rest of the economy be generated and strengthened? A priority focus for this conference will be on the economics of technological innovation and adoption. Despite much study, it remains striking that, despite the available off-the-shelf technology, yields and yield growth in Africa continue to lag behind the rest of the world, while adoption of new technologies is slow. A study of the interaction of different existing market failures (including in credit, insurance) as well as the behavioural foundations of technology adoption (the role risk and ambiguity, and the process learning) will remain crucial, as well as its institutional foundations, such as the nature of land rights and other constraints on accumulation. There are several innovations that could lead to increases in agricultural growth and will be the focus of research under this theme. The first would be a move into higher-value, or cash, crops - e.g., from maize/sorghum/basic staple or cereal crops into vegetables/horticulture (e.g. French beans, snow peas). Such crops are often export crops. The second is changes in physical inputs - in particular water/irrigation, but also fertilizer, seed, pesticides, etc. (see above). For example, in Kenya only 6% of plots use any irrigation at all (most plots are rain fed). Third are changes in the organization of production and land ownership - from small, uncoordinated single-family holdings to larger farms, or cooperatives of small farms. Fourth is the opening up and expansion of domestic and foreign markets for the outputs of agriculture, either through improvements in road and air networks and other infrastructure, or through the development of links between producers and traders (contract farming mentioned above). Fifth is the reduction of financial market imperfections, including opportunities for saving and improvements in formal insurance as well as improved access to credit markets. Sixth is the more rapid commercialization of agriculture. While there are unlikely to be relevant increasing returns to scale in production, there are likely to be increasing returns in marketing, storage, transport, input provision, retailing (supermarkets), etc. The organizing theme of the collaboration is to build relationships for collaborative research on agriculture in Africa. This is why the participants will remain for the following three days of the associated AERC conference, to build in time and space for developing the research collaborations. The discussants from the US will be paired with likely papers from Africa-based researchers based on the declared interests in potential joint work by both parties. Further, early career scientists from the US will be participating in the conference.The Social, Behavioral, and Economics Directorate's Social and Economic Sciences Division and by the Office of International Science and Engineering's Africa, Near East and South Asia program are providing funding for this award.