Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Reference-Dependent Preferences, Expectations, and Dynamic Choice

该奖项资助实验室实验，测试预期对参考点和跨期选择的影响。参考依赖型实用模型（如前景理论）作为经济学家广泛使用的预期实用模型的替代方案已被广泛应用。然而，几乎没有证据表明参考点实际上是如何确定的。以前的研究人员通常认为参考点是现状，但最近其他经济学家和决策科学家认为，参考点是由对未来结果的预期决定的。coPI和一位合作者最近开发了经验证据，证明期望确实决定了静态决策环境中的参考点。这个新项目考虑了期望如何影响动态跨期环境中的选择。这项研究为个体如何做出跨期选择提供了新的证据，同时也区分了参照依赖偏好的竞争理论。跨期选择的研究一直是一个丰富的研究领域，因为越来越多的证据表明，个体具有时间不一致的偏好：许多个体的折现率似乎随着时间的推移而下降，而不是以恒定的速率折现效用。这样的偏好会导致内部冲突、当前的过度消费，以及使用承诺手段约束未来行为的愿望。与此同时，一些参考依赖偏好理论也预测，个体会在当下过度消费，因为他们希望给自己带来有利的惊喜。这项由该奖项资助的新研究操纵了不同时间点的期望，以确定参照依赖偏好理论预测的跨期选择是否受到影响。通过提供参考点是如何随着时间的推移而确定的证据，该项目使研究人员能够更好地利用参考依赖模型来分析经济上重要的行为，如劳动力供给、储蓄决策和是否购买保险。这项研究更广泛的影响包括设计更有效的干预措施（由政策制定者和个人），旨在鼓励个人行为改变和自我控制。

This award funds laboratory experiments testing the effect of expectations on reference points and intertemporal choice.Reference dependent utility models (for example, prospect theory) have been widely applied as alternatives to the expected utility models widely used by economists. However, there is little evidence on how the reference point is actually determined. Previous researchers have often assumed that the reference point is the status quo, but recently other economists and decision scientists have argued that reference points are determined by expectations of future outcomes. The coPI and a collaborator have recently developed empirical evidence that expectations do indeed determine the reference point in a static decision making context. This new project considers how expectations affect choice in a dynamic intertemporal context.The research provides new evidence on how individuals make intertemporal choices while also distinguishing between competing theories of reference-dependent preferences. The study of intertemporal choice has been a fertile field of research, as evidence has mounted that suggests that individuals have time inconsistent preferences: instead of discounting utility at a constant rate, many individuals appear to have a discount rate that declines with time. Such preferences can lead to internal conflict, over-consumption in the present, and a desire to use commitment devices to bind future behavior. At the same time, some theories of reference dependent preferences also predict that individuals will over-consume in the present because they desire to give themselves favorable surprises. The new research funded by this award manipulates expectations at various points in time to determine whether intertemporal choices are affected as predicted by reference-dependent preference theories.By providing evidence on how reference points are determined over time, this project enables researchers to make better use of reference dependent models in analyzing economically important behaviors such as labor supply, savings decisions, and whether or not to purchase insurance.The broader impacts of this research include the design of more effective interventions (by policy makers and by individuals) aimed at encouraging individual behavior change and self control.