Collaborative Research: EAGER - Managing Uncertainty by Integrating Information Economics and Robust Design

这一早期概念探索性研究(AGUGER)奖的研究目标是为管理多层次设计过程中的不确定性奠定基础。减少设计复杂系统中的不确定性通常会导致计算成本的显著增加；减少计算工作量的努力需要使用更简单的模型，从而增加不确定性。因此，有必要研究和开发方法，以便在做出良好的设计决策时，在不确定性和计算工作量之间找到合适的平衡。中心假设是，不确定性的影响及其在多级设计过程网络中的传播可以通过平衡不确定性缓解的努力和从系统性能方面获得的好处来管理。在成功完成后，该项目将提供管理复杂系统多层次设计中不确定性的基础知识和方法。如果成功，该奖项的结果将是：a)量化建模和计算工作的方法；b)在与减少不确定性相关的工作和设计结果之间做出权衡决策的方法；c)整合信息经济学和稳健设计的框架；以及d)可用于开展复杂工程系统基于模拟的设计中的不确定性减少的系统研究的有效概念。拟议的研究具有变革性，因为它的重点是通过在努力和收益之间进行权衡来管理不确定性，而不是仅仅以需要提高设计过程网络中模型的准确性为特征的不确定性缓解方法。概念论证的成功证明将为开展和提出更广泛的研究奠定基础。除了在学术文献中发表外，这项工作中与工业相关的部分将在研讨会和贸易会议上介绍。PIS将通过其活动ASME和SWE学生分会、Pi Tau Sigma和吸引代表不足的少数族裔的计划，积极招募和指导代表不足的少数族裔和妇女。

The research objective of this Early-Concept Grant for Exploratory Research (EAGER)award is to establish the foundations of a method for managing uncertainty within multilevel design processes. Mitigation of uncertainty in designing complex systems typically results in a significant increase in computational cost; efforts to reduce computational effort necessitate the use of simpler models resulting in increased uncertainty. Hence, there is a need to research and develop methods to find the right balance between uncertainty and computational effort while making good design decisions. The central hypothesis is that the effect of uncertainty and its propagation in multilevel design process networks can be managed by balancing the effort of uncertainty mitigation and the benefit gained in terms of system performance. On successful completion this project will provide the foundational knowledge and approaches to managing uncertainty in the multilevel design of complex systems. If successful, the outcomes of this award will be: a) an approach for quantifying modeling and computational effort; b) an approach for making tradeoff decisions between the effort associated with uncertainty mitigation and design outcomes; c) a framework integrating information economics and robust design; and d) a validated concept that can be used to carry out systematic studies on uncertainty mitigation in simulation-based design of complex engineering systems. The proposed research is transformational because of its focus on uncertainty management through tradeoff between effort and benefit, as opposed to uncertainty mitigation approaches that are characterized solely by the need to increase the accuracy of models in a design process network. Successful demonstration of the proof of concept will result in a foundation upon which more extensive research will be performed and proposed. In addition to publishing in the scholarly literature, the industrially relevant portions of this work will be presented at workshops and trade meetings. The PIs will proactively recruit and mentor underrepresented minorities and women through their activities ASME and SWE student chapters, Pi Tau Sigma, and programs to attract under-represented minorities.