Collaborative Research: A Pilot Project on Interactive Land Use and Climate Predictions

摘要：过去土地利用预测主要基于人口和社会经济发展情景，并作为外部驱动因素提供给气候预测模型。气候作为土地利用变化的主要生物物理驱动因素的作用尚未得到充分考虑。以西非为例，该项目将解决一个首要问题，即是否迫切需要将土地利用预测作为地球系统模型的一个组成部分。该项目的目标是：(1)考虑气候和土地利用之间的相互作用，预测未来的气候和土地利用；(2)评估西非地区温室气体排放和土地利用对区域气候变化的驱动作用；(3)了解生物物理和社会经济因素对土地利用变化的影响。基于将5个模型（即区域气候模型、动态植被模型、作物生长模型、农业经济模型和土地利用分配模型）串联起来的拟议建模框架，pi将研究社会经济和生物物理因素对人类土地利用的影响。该项目将揭示地球系统模型中气候-土地利用相互作用是否以及在多大程度上影响未来气候和未来土地利用的预测。这项研究的广泛影响是很高的。气候变化及其对粮食安全的不利影响是西非国家和国际组织关注的主要问题。该项目的成果将为粮食政策和有针对性的气候变化适应投资提供科学依据。此外，该项目将在更广泛的范围内促进教学和学习，并增加代表性不足的群体，特别是妇女参与地球科学研究。这笔赠款支持康涅狄格大学、洛约拉玛丽蒙特大学和国际食品政策研究所等三家机构的合作努力。

Collaborative Research: A Pilot Project on Interactive Land Use and Climate PredictionsAbstract:In the past land use predictions have been based primarily on population and socioeconomic development scenarios, and have been provided to climate prediction models as an external driver. The role of climate as a major biophysical driver for land use changes has not been adequately considered. Using West Africa as an example, this project will address the overarching question of whether there is a strong need to include land use predictions as an integral component of Earth System Models. The objectives of the project are: (1) to predict future climate and land use considering the interaction between climate and land use; (2) to evaluate the roles of greenhouse gas emissions and land use in driving regional climate changes in West Africa; and (3) to understand the impacts of biophysical and socioeconomic factors on land use changes. Based on a proposed modeling framework that links a cascade of five models, i.e., a regional climate model, a dynamic vegetation model, a crop growth model, an agricultural economics model, and a land use allocation model, the PIs will study the impact of both socio-economic and biophysical factors on human land use. This project will shed insights into whether and to what extent, climate-land use interactions in earth system models influence predictions of future climate and future land use. The broader impacts of this research are high. Climate change and its adverse impact on food security are a major concern for West African countries and international organizations. Results from this project will provide scientific foundations for food policy and targeted investment in climate change adaptation. In addition, this project will promote teaching and learning in a broader context, as well as increase the participation of underrepresented groups, especially women, in geosciences research. This grant supports a collaborative effort among three institutions including the University of Connecticut, Loyola Marymount University, and the International Food Policy Research Institute.