RAPID: Effects of the Mississippi River plume on the spread of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick

预测墨西哥湾浮油的迁移对于保护敏感的湿地和沿海渔业不受污染至关重要。海洋和大陆架模型每天对浮油的登陆进行预测，这对海岸管理人员来说是无价的，然而，有几次海面浮油异常迁移事件没有得到预测。最近的分析表明，密西西比河的排放物通过改变海面高度（SSH）将石油推向近海。本研究提出用带摩擦的双层二维伯努利模型来描述浮油的压力驱动流动。本研究将结合海面温度、海温、海流的卫星资料，以及每日河流流量和天气资料，量化羽流对浮油动态的影响。这种建模方法简单，可推广，因此可用于其他溢油事故。“深水地平线”钻井平台爆炸造成的原油泄漏是美国历史上最严重的环境灾难。泄漏的位置是这样的，在某些情况下，密西西比河的羽流可以发挥强大的控制作用。该模型将利用每日卫星数据提供一个简单的、定量的羽流效应对浮油动态的估计；如果海面高度的影响显著，可以很容易地纳入更复杂的每日海洋/陆架模式预报。量化羽流效应将提供必要的科学依据，以确定战略性的河流转移是否能有效防止浮油在路易斯安那州敏感的湿地登陆。该模型还可以预测由于预期的河段季节变化而导致的羽流效应的长期变化。

Predicting the migration of the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico is crucial for protecting sensitive wetlands and coastal fisheries from contamination. Ocean and shelf models make daily forecasts of landfall of the surface slick that are invaluable for coastal managers, however there have been several events of anomalous surface slick migration that were not forecast. Recent analysis indicates that discharge from the Mississippi River pushes oil offshore by deforming the sea surface height (SSH). This study proposes to describe pressure-driven flows of the buoyant oil slick using a two-layer, 2D Bernoulli model with friction. Combined with satellite data of SSH, sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean currents, and daily river discharge and weather data, this research will quantify the plume effect on oil slick dynamics. This modeling approach is simple and generalizable, and therefore could be adopted for other oil spills. The ongoing oil spill resulting from the Deepwater Horizon explosion is the worst environmental disaster in US history. The location of the spill is such that, under some conditions, the Mississippi River plume can exert a strong control. This model will provide a simple, quantitative estimate of this plume effect on oil slick dynamics each day using daily satellite data; if significant, this effect of sea-surface height could easily be incorporated into more complex daily ocean/shelf model forecasts. Quantifying the plume effect will provide the science needed to determine whether strategic river diversions are effective for preventing landfall of oil slick in sensitive Louisiana wetlands. The model could also project longer-term changes in the plume effect resulting from anticipated seasonal changes in river stage.