LTREB: Ecosystem response to climate change: role of ecological subsidies and species interactions

气候变化正在加速。在海洋中，温度、风暴强度和海洋酸化的变化已经被记录在案。对海洋生态系统的影响一直很难预测，因为建模工作忽略了环境变化背景下物种相互作用的复杂性。该项目结合了气候变化下俄勒冈州海岸岩石海岸生态系统中物种相互作用的建模和实地研究。这一系统的关键要素已经发生了变化，包括固着无脊椎动物的数量和招募。利用20多年来获得的见解，研究人员将评估这些生态系统在未来10年如何应对气候变化。关于关键的生物和物理模式和动态的数据将为利用实地实验进行的社区反应测试提供信息。结果将为预测未来变化的建模工作提供信息，并促进对模型预测的测试。沿海生态系统的压力正在增加，并将随着人口的增加而继续增加。该项目将通过生成关于整个生态系统如何应对气候变化的首批全面研究之一，并通过建设科学能力，为社会做出贡献。结果将在网站上公布，并通过与俄勒冈州立大学的海洋赠款、俄亥俄州立大学的哈特菲尔德海洋科学中心和海岸观察等项目的协调，在地方到国家的背景下向公众展示。本科生将在PI的培训和指导下，通过开展年度社区调查，全面参与研究。争取妇女和少数群体加入我们的研究小组的成功努力将继续并扩大。

Climate change is accelerating. In the ocean, changes in temperature, storm intensity, and ocean acidification have already been documented. Impacts on marine ecosystems have been difficult to predict because modeling efforts have ignored the complexities of species interactions in the context of a changing environment. This project combines modeling and field studies of species interactions in rocky shore ecosystems along the Oregon coast under a changing climate. Key elements of this system have already changed, including abundance and recruitment of sessile invertebrates. Using insights obtained over 20+years, the investigators will evaluate how these ecosystems respond to changing climate over the next 10 years. Data on key biological and physical patterns and dynamics will inform tests of community responses using field experiments. Results will inform modeling efforts for prediction of future change and foster testing of model predictions.Pressure on coastal ecosystems is growing and will continue to do so as human populations increase. This project will contribute to society by generating one of the first comprehensive studies of how an entire ecosystem responds to climate change, and by building scientific capacity. Results will be made available on websites, and presented to the public in local to national settings through coordination with programs such as Oregon State University's Sea Grant, OSU's Hatfield Marine Science Center, and Coast Watch. Undergraduate students will be integrally involved in the research by carrying out annual community surveys under the PI's training and direction. Successful efforts in engaging women and minorities in our research group will continue and expand.