Collaborative Research. Market Bubbles As Expression Of Social Norms: Experiments

在这个研究项目中，PI调查了社会理性解释竞争性资产市场出现一种泡沫的可能性：一种被称为“信贷市场泡沫”的泡沫。泡沫被定义为一种情况，即(I)债务的定价高于其众所周知的内在价值，以及(Ii)债务被展期，尽管每个债权人都应该兑现，因为每个人都知道债务人永远无法偿还。基于行为博弈论的证据，PI推测，每当债务人的偿付能力随着时间的推移而增长时，这种信贷市场泡沫就会出现，尽管永远不会足够。先导实验数据证实了在这种情况下出现了气泡。研究人员将进行实验，以进一步检验泡沫在这种环境中的稳健性，并测试规范驱动观察到的行为的假设。从更广泛的影响来看，这项研究将提供对价格泡沫的更好理解。信贷泡沫和随之而来的资产价格上涨在现实世界中以惊人的频率再次出现。这项研究表明，个人理性与社会理性之间的紧张关系是他们存在的根本原因。这将有助于更好地理解这一在现代资本主义社会中普遍存在的现象，并启发政府制定新的、有效的政策和法规，将其负面影响降至最低。

In this research project, the PIs investigate the possibility that social rationality explains the emergence of one type of bubble in competitive asset markets: a bubble referred to as a "credit market bubble." The bubble is defined as a situation where (i) the debt is priced above its commonly known intrinsic value and (ii) the debt is rolled over even though each creditor should cash in because everyone knows that the debtor will never be able to repay. Building on evidence from behavioral game theory, the PIs conjecture that such credit market bubbles emerge whenever the debtor's payment ability, although never sufficient, grows over time. Pilot experimental data confirm the emergence of bubbles in this setting. The researchers will conduct experiments to further examine the robustness of bubbles in this environment and test the hypothesis that norms are driving the observed behavior.In terms of broader impacts, this research will provide a better understanding of price bubbles. Credit bubbles and accompanying asset price run-ups re-occur with alarming frequency in the real world. This research suggests that tension between individual and social rationality is the root cause for their existence. It will lead to a better understanding of this ubiquitous phenomenon in modern capitalist society, and inspire novel and effective government policy and regulation to minimize their negative effects.