Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Why Do the Longest Civil Wars Exhibit Low-Level Violence?

虽然学者们在过去十年中在内战研究方面取得了重大进展，但他们还没有解释一个重要的谜团。为什么持续时间最长的叛乱显示出低水平的暴力？ 为什么这些持久但小规模的冲突中有许多发生在相对有能力的国家，如印度、印度尼西亚、缅甸和哥伦比亚，这些国家如果全力以赴镇压叛乱，就可以消灭叛乱分子？为什么这些国家容忍这些反叛组织，只要他们使用低规模的暴力？该项目超越了基于承诺或信息问题、国家能力低下或政权类型的通常解释，并侧重于国家动机，以解释为什么持续时间最长的叛乱仍然处于低暴力水平。该项目认为，某些发展中国家宁愿不把所有的努力投入到国家渗透和国家的形成，并愿意接受在某些领域的低状态。如果叛乱分子位于这些国家地位较低的地区，这些相对强大的国家愿意容忍这些叛乱团体，只要暴力保持在一个阈值以下，不威胁政治领导人。该项目使用多层次嵌套分析研究设计来测试其论点，该设计在对所有叛乱活动的跨国统计分析中嵌套了对此类叛乱活动的次国家比较分析。跨国分析表明，有多种叛乱的中等能力国家往往有最长的叛乱。该项目研究了一个这样的中等能力的国家与多个叛乱-印度-并进行了小规模的，但持久的毛派叛乱，自1980年以来持续的国家以下的比较分析。调查员测试的影响，对事件数据集的毛派叛乱（涵盖2002-2008年），创建在以前的实地工作，并使用地区一级的暴力数据，所有受叛乱影响的国家的论点。嵌套在这个全印度的定量分析，研究人员进行了比较分析的暴力和反叛乱的两个叛乱影响相邻的国家，安得拉邦和恰蒂斯加尔的模式。虽然这两个州的叛乱都发生在以前英国间接统治的地区，国家渗透率很低，但这两个州的反叛乱和暴力模式完全不同。虽然安得拉邦在20世纪80年代末开始了严重的平叛，但恰蒂斯加尔直到2005年才升级了平叛。调查人员利用实地工作期间收集的数据，证明了叛乱活动中政治家对威胁的看法的变化解释了暴力模式的变化。这一发现支持了更广泛的论点，即国家的动机解释了这些持久的叛乱的低暴力模式。该项目的智力价值在于它强调需要纳入民选官员和国家雇员，在不同的政府级别，到冲突的强度和持续时间的分析。该项目还创建了关于印度任何叛乱的第一个事件数据集，从而做出了重大的经验贡献。这样一个从低种姓和部落招募的革命叛乱实际上可以与世界上最大的民主国家的民主制度共存，这应该引起民主学者、政治暴力分析家和对种族、公共产品分配和冲突之间的联系感兴趣的发展经济学家的兴趣。该项目产生更广泛影响的原因是，虽然这些小规模的持久冲突不会导致每年的高死亡人数，但它们的持续存在在地方一级造成了高昂的人的安全代价，包括健康、教育和环境代价。这项研究具有高度的政策重要性，因为毛派叛乱最近升级，构成严重的安全威胁。对叛乱起源的研究可能有助于决策者了解如何改善毛派冲突地区的当地条件。该项目还应加强对反叛乱措施选择的理解。它将讲述印度社会中弱势群体的故事，以及一场直到最近才被隐藏起来的战争，从而有望提高国际政策界和印度城市环境的认识。

While scholars have made significant advances in the last decade in the study of civil wars, they have not yet explained an important puzzle. Why do the longest insurgencies display low levels of violence? Why do many of these durable but small-scale conflicts occur in relatively capable states, such as India, Indonesia, Burma and Colombia, which could eliminate the rebels if they put all their effort into counterinsurgency? Why do these states tolerate these rebel groups as long as they use low-scale violence? The project moves beyond the usual explanations based on commitment or information problems, low state capacity, or regime type, and focuses on state motivations to explain why the longest insurgencies remain at low levels of violence. The project contends that certain developing states prefer not to put all their efforts into state penetration and state formation, and are willing to accept low stateness in certain areas. If rebels locate themselves in these areas of low stateness, these relatively strong states are willing to tolerate these rebel groups as long as violence remains below a threshold and does not threaten the political leaders. The project tests its argument using a multiple level, nested analysis research design, which nests a sub-national comparative analysis of one such insurgency within cross-national statistical analysis of all insurgencies. The cross-national analysis shows that medium-capacity states with multiple insurgencies tend to have the longest insurgencies. The project examines one such medium capacity state with multiple insurgencies-India-and conducts a sub-national comparative analysis on the small-scale but durable Maoist insurgency, ongoing since 1980. The investigator tests implications of the argument on an events dataset for the Maoist insurgency (covering 2002-2008), created during prior field work and using district-level violence data for all states affected by insurgency. Nested within this all-India quantitative analysis, the researcher carries out a comparative analysis of the patterns of violence and counterinsurgency of two insurgency-affected contiguous states, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. While in both states the insurgency occurs in areas previously under indirect British rule with low state penetration, the patterns of counterinsurgency and violence are completely different for the two states. While Andhra Pradesh started serious counterinsurgency in the late 1980s, Chhattisgarh escalated counterinsurgency only in 2005. Using data gathered during field work, the investigator demonstrates that variation in threat perception by politicians from the insurgency explains variation in patterns of violence. This finding supports the broader argument that state motivations explain the low violence patterns of these durable insurgencies.The project's intellectual merit lies in its emphasis on the need to incorporate elected officials and state employees, at distinct levels of government, into the analysis of conflict intensity and duration. The project also creates the first events dataset on any insurgency in India, thus making a major empirical contribution. That such a revolutionary insurgency recruiting from lower castes and tribes can actually co-exist with democratic institutions in the world's largest democracy should interest scholars of democracy, analysts of political violence, and development economists interested in the links between ethnicity, distribution of public goods, and conflict. The broader impacts of the project stem from the fact that while these low-scale enduring conflicts do not lead to high annual fatality counts, their persistence leads to high human security costs in terms of health, education and environmental costs at the local level. The research is of high policy importance, since the Maoist insurgency has recently escalated and poses a grave security threat. The study of the origins of the insurgency may help policy makers understand how to improve local conditions in the areas with Maoist conflict. The project should also enhance understanding of choices of counterinsurgency measures. It will tell the story of underprivileged groups in Indian society and a war that until recently was hidden, and thus promises to increase awareness both in the international policy community and in the Indian urban milieu.