Doctoral Dissertation Research: Assessing the Hydrologic Implications of Glacier Recession and the Potential for Water Resources Vulnerability at Volcan Chimborazo, Ecuador

山地冰川的迅速退缩是全球气候变化的一个显著后果。冰川有助于确保下游灌溉系统、水电设施和生活用水在干旱时期的生存能力，因此，世界山区的大量冰损是一个最受关注的水资源管理问题。在厄瓜多尔，Volcán钦博拉索山35%的冰川覆盖在过去的25年里已经消失。钦博拉索斯冰川位于厄瓜多尔安第斯山脉的半干旱地区，是四个河流系统的源头，有20多万人直接依靠这些河流供水。目前，人们对这些冰川在山区水文系统中所起的确切作用以及生活在集水区的人们的具体用水模式知之甚少。本研究项目将通过回答以下问题来解决这些不确定性：琴博拉索冰川融化的速度有多快？在各种气候变化情景下，它们还会融化多远？额外的冰川退缩将如何影响整体供水？该项目采用综合方法，结合了水文学、气候学和冰川学的数据分析，以及综合建模、遥感数据分析和定性社会科学研究技术，如焦点小组和关键信息提供者访谈，来回答它提出的问题。这项研究有可能帮助钦博拉索河流域人民识别潜在水资源脆弱性的时空格局，并使他们在面临潜在的破坏性水文环境变化时更好地做出明智的水管理决策。因此，本研究的结果将为一系列内部（流域利益相关者）和外部（政府机构和非政府组织）行为者寻求了解和减轻全球气候变化对当地的影响提供重要指导。此外，本研究中采用的方法将对其他寻求超越传统学科划分以进行类似研究的人特别感兴趣。

The rapid retreat of mountain glaciers is a notable consequence of global climate change. Glaciers help ensure the viability of downstream irrigation systems, hydroelectric facilities, and domestic water supplies during otherwise dry periods and therefore significant ice loss in the world's mountain areas is a water resource management issue of paramount concern. In Ecuador, 35% of Volcán Chimborazo's glacier cover has been lost in the past quarter century. Located in a semi-arid portion of the Ecuadorian Andes, Chimborazos glaciers serve as headwaters for four river systems, upon which more than 200,000 people directly rely for their water supply. At present, very little is known about the exact role these glaciers play in the hydrologic system of the mountain or the specific water usage patterns of the people living in the catchment area. This research project will address these uncertainties by answering the following questions: How fast are Chimborazo's glaciers melting, how much further will they melt under various climate change scenarios, how will additional glacier retreat impact overall water supply, and how socially and economically vulnerable are watershed stakeholders to these potential hydrologic changes? This project employs an integrative methodological approach that combines data analysis from hydrology, climatology and glaciology as well as integrative modeling, analysis of remotely-sensed data, and qualitative social science research techniques such as focus groups and key-informant interviews to answer the questions it has posed.This research has the potential to assist the people of Chimborazo in identifying spatial and temporal patterns of potential water resource vulnerability and better position them to make informed water management decisions in the face of potentially disruptive changes to their hydrologic environment. The results of this study will therefore provide critical guidance to a range of internal (watershed stakeholders) and external (governmental agencies and non-governmental organizations) actors seeking to understand and mitigate local impacts resulting from global climate change. Furthermore, the methodology employed in this research will be of particular interest to others who seek to move past traditional disciplinary divisions in order to perform similar research.