Development of a Climatology of Precipitation System Organization in North Carolina to Improve Climate Precipitation Forecasts

由于没有主要河流流入北卡罗来纳州，该州境内的降水是补充该地区河流、土壤和地下水水库的主要自然水源。随着气候和人口压力的变化，北卡罗来纳州的水资源管理和可持续发展政策将越来越依赖于对该地区降水变异性的更好理解。智力优势：这项研究的前提是，利用新获得的高分辨率降水和三维雷达反射率数据集开发的北卡罗来纳州降水系统输送模式的新气候学将导致改善区域气候和水文预报。降水输送方式是指降水系统的空间、时间和水相特征。北卡罗来纳州在各种天气制度下出现的输送方式的例子包括持续时间短和空间不均匀的对流单体、大的中尺度对流系统、广泛的持续时间较长的锋面降水、热带气旋和冬季降水。每种交付方式可能产生类似的时间平均降水总量，但对气候和水文的影响却截然不同。气候学的交付模式将为以过程为基础的气候模拟缩小到流域尺度提供独特的工具。该项目将由三个主要部分组成，如下所示。1)第一部分旨在制定和实施一种方法，以确定降雨的不同输送方式，该方法将应用于五年(2006-2010年)的国家马赛克和多传感器定量降水估计雷达反射率和降水数据集。我们将利用北卡罗来纳大学文艺复兴计算研究所和国家气候数据中心之间的合作伙伴关系，使用数据挖掘技术分析为该项目构建的地区性NMQ数据集，以提高计算效率。2)该项目的第二部分将研究降雨输送方式与天气尺度气流和季节内至年际气候变率的主导机制之间的关系。3)本研究的第三部分将检验这一假设，即对于季节时间尺度和区域空间尺度，降雨的输送方式为再分析产品和气候模式模拟中基于过程的降水缩减(与不同天气机制挂钩)提供了基础。更广泛的影响：该项目将对尚未充分探索这些联系的地区(北卡罗来纳州)的气候预测产生重大影响。气候学将改进区域气候模型预报，并在未来应用于改进流域尺度上的水文模拟。该项目还为美国国家海洋和大气局和美国国家航空航天局的水文研究和业务计划(美国国家海洋和大气局东南水文气象试验床和美国国家航空航天局全球降水任务)带来重大好处。该项目将为本科生和研究生的研究和培训提供一个平台。项目成果和外联活动将使北卡罗来纳州东部的农业社区受益，这些社区在教育和经济机会方面历来得不到充分的服务，同时容易受到恶劣天气和与洪水有关的灾害的影响。该项目的成功将改善气候模型降水量估计到区域和分水岭尺度的基于过程的缩减。

Since no major rivers flow into the State of North Carolina, precipitation falling within the state is the primary natural source of water to replenish that region's rivers, soils, and groundwater reservoirs. As climate and population pressures change, water management and sustainability policies in North Carolina will be increasingly dependent on an improved understanding of precipitation variability in that region.Intellectual merit:The premise of this study is that a novel climatology of precipitation system mode of delivery in North Carolina, developed with newly available high resolution precipitation and three-dimensional radar reflectivity datasets, will lead to improved regional climate and hydrological forecasts. Mode of delivery refers to the spatial, temporal and water phase characteristics of a precipitation system. Examples of mode of delivery that occur in North Carolina within various synoptic regimes include short duration and spatially heterogeneous convective cells, large mesoscale convective systems, widespread long-lasting frontal precipitation, tropical cyclones, and winter precipitation. Each mode of delivery may produce similar time-averaged precipitation totals, but have very different climate and hydrological impacts. A mode of delivery climatology will provide a unique tool for process-based downscaling of climate simulations to the watershed scale.The project will consist of three main parts, as follows. 1) The first part aims to develop and implement a methodology to identify the distinct mode of delivery of rainfall, which will be applied to five years (2006-2010) of the National Mosaic and Multi-sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (NMQ) radar reflectivity and precipitation datasets. We will leverage a partnership between the University of North Carolina Renaissance Computing Institute, and the National Climate Data Center to analyze regional NMQ data sets constructed for this project using data-mining techniques for computational efficiency. 2) The second part of the project will examine the relationship between mode of delivery of rainfall and the dominant regimes of the synoptic-scale flow and intraseasonal-to-interannual climate variability. 3) The third part of this study will test the hypothesis that for seasonal time scales and regional spatial scales, the mode of delivery of rainfall provides a basis for the process-based downscaling (tied to different synoptic regimes) of precipitation in reanalysis products and climate model simulations.Broader impacts:The project will have significant implications for climate prediction for a region (North Carolina) where those connections have not been fully explored. The climatology will result in improvements to regional climate model forecasting and with future applications to improve hydrological simulations on the watershed scale. The project also include significant benefits to NOAA and NASA hydrological research and operational programs (NOAA Hydrometeorological Testbed-Southeast and NASA Global Precipitation Mission). The project will provide a platform for undergraduate and graduate student research and training. Project results and outreach will benefit the agricultural communities in eastern North Carolina, which have been historically underserved with respect to educational and economic opportunities, while at the same time have been vulnerable to severe weather and flood-related hazards. The success of this project will improve a process-based downscaling of climate model precipitation estimates to the regional and watershed scale.