Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Formation of Armed Self-Defense Groups in Civil Wars

许多叛乱分子在内战期间对农村地区的平民采取暴力行动。在缺乏国家保护的情况下，这些地区的一些村庄组织武装团体保护自己免受此类暴力的侵害。这个项目调查了这些武装自卫团体的形成。武装自卫团的形成虽然还没有得到充分的研究，但它在内战中也是一种重要而常见的现象。出现武装自卫组织的冲突的例子包括阿尔及利亚、肯尼亚、秘鲁、塞拉利昂和苏丹的内战。最近的分析记录了针对农村村庄的叛乱暴力的盛行。这些研究集中于解释这种暴力行为，但忽视了平民反应的差异。该项目对苏丹西南部毗邻的四个乡村进行了深入的比较分析。在南苏丹内战初期(1983-2005年)，四个村庄的种族构成和叛乱威胁程度相似。然而，只有两个社区创建了武装自卫组织。该项目结合了深度访谈、正式模型和网络分析，以确定武装自卫团体形成和不形成的过程--事件、行动和决定。武装自卫团体可以对内战的演变产生两个重要影响。首先，武装自卫团体阻碍叛乱行动。叛乱分子经常需要平民的支持--无论是被迫的还是自愿的--以获得食物、新兵和情报。武装自卫团体通常会对这种支持构成障碍。其次，武装自卫组织经常在国家的反叛乱行动中发挥重要作用。在缺乏武器和军事技术的情况下，受到威胁的社区通常求助于国家或地方军队指挥官，以获得建立和维持其武装自卫团体所需的物质支持和培训。不出所料，政府需要一定程度的控制，以换取它的支持。随着这些交流的继续，武装自卫团体被国家增选，发展成为政府支持的民兵组织，为国家对叛乱分子进行进攻行动。该项目对有关前战斗人员解除武装、复员和重返社会(DDR)的一般政策辩论以及围绕南苏丹未来的更具体政策辩论具有影响。在关于解除武装、复员和重返社会的辩论中，有一种趋势是制定对当地权力动态敏感的方案。该项目确定了最初武装平民的原因和条件，符合这一趋势，并可为复员方案的工作提供参考。对于南苏丹的未来，许多政策制定者担心政府支持的民兵组织在南苏丹死灰复燃。这一项目？？S阐明这些民兵的来源的能力应有助于对复活威胁作出政策反应。

Many insurgents engage in acts of violence against civilians in rural areas during civil war. In the absence of protection from the state, some villages within those areas organize armed groups to defend themselves against such violence. This project investigates the formation of these armed self-defense groups. The formation of armed self-defense groups is under-studied and yet it is also significant and not uncommon phenomenon in civil war. Examples of conflicts in which armed self-defense groups have emerged include the civil wars in Algeria, Kenya, Peru, Sierra Leone and Sudan. Recent analyses have documented the prevalence of insurgent violence against rural villages. These studies have concentrated on explaining such violence but have neglected variation in civilian response. This project conducts an in-depth comparative analysis of four rural villages, located close to one another, in southwest Sudan. The ethnic composition and level of insurgent threat was similar across the four villages during the early years of the civil war in south Sudan (1983-2005). Yet only two communities created armed self-defense groups. The project combines in-depth interviews, formal models, and network analysis to identify the process--events, actions and decisions--underlying the formation and non-formation of armed self-defense groups. Armed self-defense groups can have two important effects on the evolution of civil wars. First, armed self-defense groups hinder insurgent action. Insurgents often need civilian support--forced or voluntary--for food, new recruits and intelligence. Armed self-defense groups usually form an obstacle to such support. Second, armed self-defense groups often come to play an important role in the state's counterinsurgency campaign. In the absence of weapons and military know-how, communities under threat typically resort to the state or to local army commanders to receive the material support and training that are necessary to build and sustain their armed self-defense groups. The state predictably demands some level of control in exchange for its support. As these exchanges continue, armed self-defense groups become co-opted by the state, developing into government sponsored militias that conduct offensive operations against the insurgents for the state.This project has implications for general policy debates around disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) of former combatants, and for more specific policy debates around the future of south Sudan. There is a trend in debates over DDR towards the development of programs that are sensitive to local power dynamics. This project's identification of reasons and conditions underlying the initial armament of civilians fits within this trend and could inform DDR efforts. As for the future of south Sudan, many policy makers are concerned about the resurrection of government sponsored militias in the south. This project?s capacity to shed light on the origin of those militias should facilitate the production of policy responses to resurrection threats.