Collaborative Research: Spatial Dynamic Modeling of Exurban Land Markets and Land Use Patterns

尽管最近在地理模拟、经验土地利用变化模拟和区域空间动态理论方面取得了进展，但关于区域经济增长和衰退如何影响城外土地利用格局的空间和时间动态的基本知识仍然很基本。这在很大程度上是因为在传统的城市经济模型中，继续依赖于瞬时价格调整到长期空间均衡的假设，而忽略了对短期动态和局部空间相互作用的考虑。为了解决这些理论局限性，本研究项目将开发一个明确说明郊区关键特征的郊区土地市场的动态空间模型，以解释观察到的郊区地价和开发模式动态(目标1)。该模型将纳入当地的土地利用反馈，如开放空间和拥堵溢出，以调查这些内生的当地溢出如何影响地价和土地利用动态(目标2)。该模型还将用于探讨收入冲击对城郊土地需求、供应和土地利用模式的潜在影响，以及这些变化发生的时间尺度(目标3)。该项目将通过开发一个新的城郊土地市场理论模型来实现这些研究目标，该模型考虑了空间差异土地的相对需求和供应。调查人员将使用拍卖模型来得出最优家庭出价，并使用最优时机模型来得出土地所有者保留租金。基于空间主体的计算模型将被用来模拟市场相互作用，并得出随时间变化的市场地价和土地开发模式。将使用有关地块级别土地开发和住宅选址决策的大量空间数据来经验地指定关键模型参数，并使用MatLab和C++代码进行实现。期望该模型将产生关于空间套利在城郊土地市场中的作用的新假设，并将为研究空间土地利用动态提供一个新的理论和基于模拟的框架。城郊的快速发展和随之而来的特有的低密度和分散的城市化模式极大地扩大了美国的城市足迹，并改变了许多农村地区。自2006年房地产泡沫破灭以来，许多郊区出现了一系列新的挑战，这些地区的衰退似乎比城市和郊区的衰退更快。这两种趋势都对郊区的可持续性提出了基本问题。通过开发城郊土地市场的动态空间模型，该项目将解决城郊增长、衰落和可持续性等基本问题。尽管远郊具有重要的经济和生态意义，但还没有人完全概念化或开发远郊土地市场的空间动态模型。通过这样做，该项目将为土地变化科学做出基础性的理论贡献，并为城市空间格局提供新的见解。该项目中提出的经验性应用将产生新的知识，这些知识将对面临城市可持续性管理挑战的政策制定者产生切实的好处。通过进一步促进区域科学和物理科学家之间的合作，该项目将促进空间科学家参与跨学科研究，并为研究生提供复杂系统和空间经济建模方面的新的跨学科培训机会。

Despite recent advances in geosimulation, empirical land-use change modeling, and regional spatial dynamic theories, basic knowledge regarding how regional economic growth and decline impact the spatial and temporal dynamics of exurban land-use patterns remains rudimentary. This is due in large part to a continued reliance on assumptions of instantaneous price adjustments to a long-run spatial equilibrium in conventional urban economic models that omit consideration of short-run dynamics and local spatial interactions. To address these theoretical limitations, this research project will develop a dynamic spatial model of exurban land markets that explicitly accounts for key features of exurban areas to explain observed exurban land-price and development pattern dynamics (Objective 1). The model will incorporate local land use feedbacks, such as open space and congestion spillovers, to investigate how incorporation of these endogenous local spillovers influences land-price and land-use dynamics (Objective 2). The model will also be used to explore the potential impacts of income shocks on exurban land demand, supply, and land-use patterns and the time scales over which these changes occur (Objective 3). The project will accomplish these research objectives by developing a new theoretical model of exurban land markets that accounts for the relative demand and supply of spatially differentiated land. The investigators will use an auction model to derive optimal household bids and an optimal timing model to derive landowner reservation rents. Spatial agent-based computational modeling will be used to simulate market interactions and derive spatially varying market land prices and land development patterns over time. Extensive spatial data on parcel-level land development and residential location decisions will be used to empirically specify the key model parameters and MatLab and C++ codes will be used for implementation. The expectation is that the model will generate new hypotheses regarding the role of spatial arbitrage in exurban land markets and will provide a new theoretical and simulation-based framework for studying spatial land-use dynamics. Rapid exurban growth and the characteristic low density and scattered urbanization patterns that accompany it have greatly extended America's urban footprint and transformed many rural areas. Since the onset of the housing bust in 2006, a new set of challenges has emerged for many exurban areas that appear to have declined more rapidly than their urban and suburban counterparts. Both trends raise essential questions about the sustainability of exurban regions. By developing a dynamic spatial model of exurban land markets, this project will address these fundamental questions of exurban growth, decline, and sustainability. Despite the economic and ecological importance of the exurbs, no one has fully conceptualized or developed a spatial dynamic model of exurban land markets. By doing so, this project will make a fundamental theoretical contribution to land-change science and provide new insights into urban spatial patterns. The empirical applications proposed in this project will generate new knowledge that will have tangible benefits to policy makers confronted with urban sustainability management challenges. By furthering collaboration among scientists from regional science and physics, this project will advance the involvement of spatial scientists in interdisciplinary research and provide new interdisciplinary training opportunities for graduate students in complex systems and spatial economic modeling.