The Cross Section of Housing Markets

摘要提案题目：住房市场的横截面（提案号：1156320）主要研究者：Piazzesi， Monika。该提案中描述的项目关注住房的两个关键属性：住房是(i)不可分割的，（ii）质量异质性的，即使在地理单位内也是如此。这一建议既有实证成分，也有理论成分。实证工作利用几个大型房地产数据集来记录住房市场横截面上的新风格化事实。然后，我们继续建立定量模型来说明这些事实。第一个项目使用分配模型来理解2000-2005年房地产繁荣期间资本收益的横截面。第二部分研究了异构房屋的搜索过程。在最近的房价暴涨期间，不同房屋的资本收益存在很大差异，即使在同一都市区也是如此。特别是，便宜的房子比昂贵的房子升值更多。第一个项目研究了这种模式的几种可能的解释：廉价信贷，房屋质量分布的变化，或移动特征（如收入）分布的变化。目标是建立一个定量模型来评估这些差异在环境中的作用。现有的文献研究了最近的房地产繁荣的模型，其中住房被视为完全可分割的资本。这些模型从所有家庭的最优条件中确定单个住房单价，因此对房价的横截面没有有趣的含义。相反，这个项目研究了不可分割的房屋因质量不同而不同的模型。然后，特定房屋的价格由考虑在该质量范围内购买房屋的特定家庭子组的最优条件决定。在某种程度上，经济的变化（例如，更便宜的信贷）对这一家庭群体的影响更大（例如，贫困家庭更多地依赖信贷），在他们认为的质量范围内的房价将更具响应性（与现有模型相比）。第二个项目研究具有异质房屋和搜索摩擦的模型。在房地产市场上，卖家在没有承诺的情况下公布价格，而买家则浏览可用的房屋。搜寻过程成本高昂，而且使房屋缺乏流动性。这种模型的任何定量实现的一个关键问题是？买家会搜索哪些细分市场？这个项目在这个问题上取得了进展，使用了房地产清单价格历史数据库（包括在市场上的时间和降价）和热门房地产网站上的搜索查询。初步的数据调查表明，在住房市场的廉价部分的买家使用较窄的搜索标准，解释了在市场上的时间较长，在这个部分的房屋较高的非流动性。拟议的研究结果将提供有关住房市场摩擦的定量作用的信息。最近的房价下跌凸显了理解这些市场运作的重要性，这使得这些摩擦值得学者、政策制定者和公众更广泛地研究。

AbstractProposal Title: The Cross Section of Housing Markets (Proposal No: 1156320) Principal Investigator: Piazzesi, Monika The projects described in this proposal focus on two key properties of housing: houses are (i) indivisible and (ii) heterogeneous by quality, even within geographical units. The proposal has both an empirical and a theoretical component. The empirical work exploits several large property-level data sets to document new stylized facts on the cross section of housing markets. We then proceed to build quantitative models that speak to these facts. The first project uses an assignment model to understand the cross section of capital gains during the 2000-2005 housing boom. The second studies the search process with heterogeneous houses. During the recent house price boom, there were large differences in capital gains across houses, even within the same metro area. In particular, cheap homes appreciated more than expensive homes. The first project studies several potential explanations for this pattern: cheap credit, shifts in the quality distribution of homes, or shifts in the distribution of mover characteristics (such as their income). The goal is to build a quantitative model to assess the role of these differences in the environment. The existing literature has investigated the recent housing boom with models in which housing is viewed as perfectly divisible capital. These models determine a single per-unit price of housing from optimality conditions of all households and thus do not have interesting implications for the cross section of house prices. Instead, this project studies models in which indivisible houses differ by quality. The price of a particular house is then determined by the optimality conditions of the particular subgroup of households who consider buying a house in that quality range. To the extent that a change in the economy (e.g., cheaper credit) affects this subgroup of households more (e.g., poor households depend more on credit), the house prices in their considered quality range will be more responsive (compared to existing models.) The second project studies models with heterogeneous houses and search frictions. In the housing market, sellers post prices without commitment, while buyers scan available houses. The search process is costly and makes houses illiquid. A key question for any quantitative implementation of such a model is ?what market segments do buyers search over?? This project makes progress on this question with databases on price histories from real estate listings (including time on the market as well as price reductions) and search queries on a popular real estate website. The preliminary data investigation indicates that buyers in the cheap segment of the housing market use narrower search criteria, explaining the longer times on the market and higher illiquidity for houses in this segment. The results of the proposed research will be informative about the quantitative role of frictions in housing markets. The recent house price declines have highlighted the importance of understanding the functioning of these markets, which makes these frictions worth studying for academics, policy makers, and the public more broadly.