Evaluating the Welfare and Forest Cover Impacts of Uganda's Forest Sector Governance Reform

该项目的重点是开展研究，以评估2003年在乌干达实施的一项重大森林部门治理改革的中长期社会和环境影响。除了估计社会和环境影响外，该项目还将审查正式和非正式政治机构在确定社会和环境结果方面的作用。2003年的改革改变了乌干达85%森林的管理方式，包括建立新的组织和机构，这些组织和机构遵循不同的权力下放模式：民主权力下放到地方政府；并将权力下放给营利性半国有企业。具体而言，该项目侧重于以下三个问题：1)改革是否实现了其所宣布的以森林为基础的减贫和环境可持续性的目标？2)在减贫和环境可持续性的共同成果方面，协同效应和权衡的决定因素是什么？3)正式和非正式政治制度如何调节治理改革的结果？拟议的研究建立在高质量基线和早期结果数据的基础上，以了解两种权力下放模式相对于乌干达森林管理仍然集中的情况对家庭一级福利的影响。遥感数据用于估计改革前后以及不同治理制度下研究地点的毁林率变化。为了成功地开展拟议的研究，将进行三项主要活动。首先，基线社会经济数据需要预处理以匹配干预点（即受改革影响地区的村庄）的村庄；以及控制地点（即仍然实行集中森林管理的地区的村庄）。其次，将与合作者一起开发整合社会经济和空间数据的定量模型。最后，将分析2007年早期结果评估中关于正式和非正式政治制度的定性数据，为政治制度在决定社会和环境结果中的因果作用的核心假设提供坚实的基础。知识价值：本研究的重点是撒哈拉以南非洲最成熟的森林部门治理改革之一。利用有关政治制度、社会福利和森林覆盖变化的高质量数据分析长期影响的能力是全新的，为自然资源治理改革的文献提供了独特的贡献。这项研究的独特之处还在于，它对福利变化和森林覆盖变化给予了同等的关注；大多数关于自然资源治理改革的研究要么关注社会经济结果，要么关注生物物理结果。一个主要目标是了解在调节森林和土地利用决策的治理和体制安排背景下观察到的结果。纵向社会经济数据、关于制度的详细多尺度数据（即规则、激励、约束、异质行为者）和长时间框架内的空间数据相结合，为了解治理改革如何随着时间的推移而成熟提供了独特的机会。更广泛的影响：该项目将向乌干达的决策者提供关于森林部门权力下放有效性的重要信息。乌干达正处于森林部门改革十周年的关键时刻。早期评价研究和轶事证据表明，改革没有取得预期的成果。随着该地区的其他国家（如肯尼亚和卢旺达）开始在自然资源部门进行治理改革，了解制度选择的作用以及加强或减轻当地资源使用者期望的政策结果的因素至关重要。此外，对与权力下放相关的福利和可持续性结果进行实证分析，对于为减少毁林和森林退化排放（REDD+）项目和政策的设计和实施提供信息至关重要。在不伤害依赖森林的当地居民的情况下，实现碳减排的适当治理水平正在引发一场辩论。很少有研究对权力下放制度的影响提供严格和长期的实证观点。

This project is focused on developing research to evaluate the medium to long-term social and environmental impacts of a major forest sector governance reform implemented in Uganda in 2003. In addition to estimating social and environmental impacts, the project will examine the role of both formal and informal political institutions in determining social and environmental outcomes. The 2003 reform, which changed the governance of 85 percent of Uganda's forests, involved the creation of new organizations and institutions following divergent models of devolution: democratic decentralization to local government; and devolution to a for-profit parastatal. Specifically the project is focused on the following three questions:1) Has the reform achieved its stated objectives of forest-based poverty reduction and environmental sustainability?;2) What are the determinants of synergies and trade-offs with respect to the joint outcomes of poverty reduction and environmental sustainability?; and,3) How do formal and informal political institutions mediate governance reform outcomes?The proposed research builds on high quality baseline and early outcome data to understand household-level welfare impacts of two models of devolution relative to a case where forest management in Uganda has remained centralized. Remote sensing data are used to estimate changes in the rate of deforestation before and after the reform took place, and in study sites under different governance regimes. To successfully develop the proposed research three major activities will take place. First, the baseline socioeconomic data require pre-processing to match villages in intervention sites (i.e., villages in areas affected by the reform); and control sites (i.e., villages in areas that remain under centralized forest management). Second, quantitative models that integrate socioeconomic and spatial data will be developed with collaborators. Finally, qualitative data on formal and informal political institutions from an evaluation of early outcomes undertaken in 2007 will be analyzed to provide solid grounding for core hypotheses related to the causal role of political institutions in determining social and environmental outcomes.Intellectual merit: This research focuses on one of the most mature forest sector governance reforms in sub-Saharan Africa. The ability to analyze long-term impacts using high quality data on political institutions, social welfare and forest cover change is entirely novel and provides a unique contribution to the literature on natural resource governance reforms. This study is also unique in that it gives equal attention to changes in welfare and forest cover change; most studies of natural resource governance reform focus on either socioeconomic OR biophysical outcomes. A primary objective is to understand observed outcomes in the context of the governance and institutional arrangements that mediate forest and land use decisions. The combination of longitudinal socioeconomic data, detailed multi-scale data on institutions (i.e., rules, incentives, constraints, heterogeneous actors), and spatial data over an extended time frame provide a unique opportunity to understand how governance reforms mature over time.Broader impacts: The project will provide important information to policy makers in Uganda on the effectiveness of forest sector decentralization. Uganda is at a critical juncture as it reaches the 10-year anniversary of the forest sector reform. Early evaluation research and anecdotal evidence suggests that the reform has not achieved the desired outcomes. As other nations in the region (e.g., Kenya and Rwanda) embark upon governance reforms in their natural resource sectors, understanding the role of institutional choice and the factors that strengthen or mitigate desired policy outcomes for local resource users is of critical importance. Further, empirical analysis of the welfare and sustainability outcomes associated with decentralization is critical for informing the design and implementation of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) projects and policies. There is an emerging debate about the appropriate level of governance for achieving carbon emission reductions, while doing no harm to the local populations that rely on forests. Very few studies provide rigorous and long-term empirical perspectives on the implications of decentralized regimes.