Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: International Criminal Tribunals' Impact on Violence Against Civilians in Ongoing Conflicts

后冷战时代见证了针对平民的难以言表的暴行。仅在波斯尼亚战争中，就有数万平民丧生，这还不包括主要城市爆炸和猖獗的性暴力造成的更广泛的创伤。在建立前南斯拉夫问题国际刑事法庭(前南问题国际法庭)和随后的新一代国际刑事法庭(信通技术)时，国际社会成员试图设计出能够遏制这种暴行的手段，甚至打破使这些暴行永久化的暴力循环。然而，通过坚持刑事起诉的威胁，信息和通信技术可能会推迟敌对行动的结束，因为各方坚持要求豁免权，甚至可能引发暴力报复。在冷战后的第一个信息和通信技术诞生近19年后，我们仍然对起诉战争罪行的实际影响知之甚少。然而，我们所知道的是，随着第一个常设信息和通信技术机构--国际刑事法院(国际刑事法院)的设立，刑事起诉的阴影延伸到当代冲突。为了更好地了解信息和通信技术如何以及何时可能对针对平民的暴力产生影响，本项目首先探讨前南问题国际法庭参与克罗地亚(1991-1995年)、波斯尼亚(1992-1995年)、科索沃(1998-1999年)和马其顿(2001年)冲突的情况。与南斯拉夫解体有关的敌对行动使人们能够调查信息和通信技术在冲突中的不同作用。此外，这些案件使我能够获得大量可靠的纵向数据，这些数据在最近的冲突中往往是不存在的。此外，克罗地亚和波斯尼亚的战争呈现了有趣的变化，我可以探索一下。特别是，前南问题国际法庭是在两场冲突的中途成立的。因此，这些案件可以帮助我确定前南问题国际法庭的介入本身是否在敌对行动仍在肆虐的情况下影响了当地的行为。我的实地工作是调查前南问题国际法庭的存在和行动如何随着时间的推移影响与南斯拉夫解体有关的各种冲突。这项研究包括收集敌对行动仍在进行时产生的主要文件，并采访与每一场冲突有关的前南问题国际法庭官员、退伍军人、政治精英和国际/当地活动家。我将利用访谈和档案数据重建事件模式，以努力了解前南问题国际法庭如何影响(可能)战犯的决定和行动，以及其积极或默许支持助长对平民的暴力行为的更广泛的行为者网络。最终，我希望发现，前南问题国际法庭的影响是多种多样的，这意味着，在某些情况下，尽管作出了广泛努力，但它无法影响结果，但在其他情况下，刑事起诉的阴影对实地行为者的战略和对冲突后重建阶段变得重要的国际支助结构产生了一些切实影响。我打算将我的发现出版为一系列学术文章和一本书，并利用这些研究开发关于国际刑事司法的课程。我还希望今后在这项研究的基础上再接再厉，把重点放在国际刑事法院参与的广泛案件上。在国际刑事法院，刑事起诉的阴影现在延伸到了现代冲突。因此，我们必须开始了解信息和通信技术可如何以及何时真正有助于限制针对平民的暴力行为。目前的项目是这一努力向前迈出的重要一步。

The post-Cold War era has witnessed unspeakable atrocities against civilians. In the Bosnian war alone, tens of thousands of civilians perished, not accounting for wider traumas wrought by the bombings of major cities and rampant sexual violence. In establishing the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and a subsequent generation of international criminal tribunals (ICTs), members of the international community sought to craft devices that could curb such atrocities and even break the cycles of violence that perpetuate them. And yet, by holding out the threat of criminal prosecution, ICTs could potentially delay the end of hostilities as parties hold out for immunity, or even trigger violent retaliation. Almost nineteen years after the creation of the first post-Cold War ICT, we still know very little about the actual impact of prosecuting war crimes. What we do know, however, is that with the creation of the first permanent ICT--the International Criminal Court (ICC)--the shadow of criminal prosecution extends to contemporary conflicts.In order to better understand how and when ICTs might impact violence against civilians, this project starts off by exploring the ICTY's involvement in the conflicts in Croatia (1991-95), Bosnia (1992-95), Kosovo (1998-99), and Macedonia (2001). The hostilities associated with the break-up of Yugoslavia allow one to investigate an ICT's varied role in conflicts that have run their course. Moreover, these cases afford me access to a wealth of reliable longitudinal data that often does not exist for more recent conflicts. In addition, the wars in Croatia and Bosnia present interesting variation that I can explore. In particular, the ICTY came into existence midway through both conflicts. These cases can thus help me to determine whether the ICTY's involvement per se shaped behaviors on the ground while hostilities were still raging. My fieldwork investigates how the existence and actions of the ICTY influenced the various conflicts associated with the break-up of Yugoslavia over time. The research includes collecting primary documents generated while hostilities were still playing out, and interviewing ICTY officials, veterans, political elites, and international/local activists associated with each conflict. I will use interview and archival data to reconstruct patterns of events in an effort to understand how the ICTY affected the decisions and actions of (would-be) war criminals, as well as the broader networks of actors whose active or tacit support facilitated violence against civilians.Ultimately, I expect to find that the ICTY's influence was variable, meaning that in certain cases it was unable to influence outcomes despite extensive efforts, yet in others, the shadow of criminal prosecution had some tangible effect on the strategies of actors on the ground and the international support structures that became important in the post-conflict phase of reconstruction. I intend to publish my findings as a series of scholarly articles and as a book, and use the research to develop courses on international criminal justice. I also hope to build on this research in the future, focusing on the wide range of cases in which the ICC has become involved. With the ICC, the shadow of criminal prosecution now extends to modern-day conflicts. It is thus essential that we begin to understand how and when ICTs might actually contribute to limiting violence against civilians. The current project constitutes an important step forward in this effort.