Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Dynamics of Radicalization and De-radicalization in Egypt and Indonesia

本项目旨在了解伊斯兰运动激进化和去激进化的动态，并提供细致入微的分析，以回答为什么暴力在某些情况下是合法的，而在另一些情况下则被谴责或抛弃。推动这项研究的核心问题是：为什么一些伊斯兰反对派组织保持非暴力，而另一些在面临类似压力时采取暴力？这个问题将通过分析四个组织来回答：穆斯林兄弟会（埃及）、Gama'a Islamiyya（埃及）、Nahdlatul Ulama（印度尼西亚）和Jama'a Islamiyya（印度尼西亚）。埃及穆斯林兄弟会（Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood）和伊斯兰教士联合会（Nahdlatul Ulama）都是深入研究其条款的关键案例，也是结构化、集中比较伊斯兰组织为何对类似的国家和国际约束做出不同反应的绝佳案例。埃及的Gama'a Islamiyya和印度尼西亚的Jama'a提供了与其国家同行和彼此之间的相关比较，有助于更好地理解为什么团体在相同的国家背景下采用不同的策略，以及为什么一些去激进化进程成功而另一些失败。在已经开展的工作的基础上，该项目将在开罗和雅加达进行档案研究，并与专家和伊斯兰组织成员进行个别访谈。这些来源可以提供有关组织决策过程和政府对伊斯兰组织政策的重要信息。为了准确地追踪组织变革的进程和审查国内、国际和组织因素如何相互作用以促使采取暴力或非暴力战略，这些数据是必要的。该项目的学术价值在于，它通过对四个重要团体的直接调查，对伊斯兰组织进行了深入的评估。这项研究将首次对伊斯兰组织的激进化和去激进化进行系统的跨区域分析。在方法上，本研究将通过结合过程追踪和结构化的重点比较来探索为什么采用特定的策略，而且为什么我们期望的结果并不总是发生，这将为伊斯兰运动的研究带来独特的贡献。该项目还将在恐怖主义研究领域开辟新的研究路线，将重点从仅仅检查暴力结果转移到提供新的方法来检查组织，战术和意识形态变化的原因。该项目的更广泛影响尤其与其对政策制定者的重要性有关。随着越来越多的伊斯兰组织在穆斯林世界争夺权力，了解是什么因素影响了他们的战略选择，以及他们的信仰为什么会改变，对于美国的总体外交政策，尤其是制定促进非暴力的政策都至关重要。该项目将提供对伊斯兰教团体作为宗教和战略参与者的更深入了解，并将有助于更好地了解各种表现形式的政治伊斯兰教。

This project seeks to understand the dynamics of radicalization and de-radicalization of Islamist movements, and to offer a nuanced analysis that can answer why violence is legitimized in some contexts and denounced or abandoned in others. The central question that drives this study is: why do some Islamist opposition groups remain non-violent, whereas others adopt violence when confronted with similar pressures? This question will be answered by analyzing four groups: the Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt), the Gama'a Islamiyya (Egypt), the Nahdlatul Ulama (Indonesia) and the Jama'a Islamiyya (Indonesia). The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and the Nahdlatul Ulama are both crucial cases to examine in-depth on their on terms, and excellent cases for a structured focused comparison of why Islamist groups react differently in response to similar state and international constraints. The Egyptian Gama'a Islamiyya and the Indonesian Jama'a offer relevant comparisons to their national counterparts and to each other, facilitating a better understanding of why groups adopt different strategies in the same national context, and why some processes of de-radicalization succeed whereas others fail.Building upon work already conducted, this project will pursue archival research in Cairo and Jakarta and individual interviews with experts and members of the Islamist groups. These sources can provide essential yet otherwise unavailable information about organizational decision-making processes and governmental policies towards Islamist groups. These pieces of data are necessary in order to accurately trace the process of organizational change and examine how domestic, international and organizational factors interact to spur the adoption of either violent or non-violent strategies.The intellectual merit of the project is connected with its deep assessment of Islamist groups through a direct investigation of four important groups. The research will provide the first systematic cross-regional analysis of both radicalization and de-radicalization of Islamist groups. Methodologically, this study will bring a unique contribution to the study of Islamist movements by combining process-tracing and structured focused comparisons to explore not only why particular tactics are adopted, but also why the outcomes we expect don't always occur. This project will also open new lines of inquiry in the field of terrorism studies, by shifting the focus away from solely examining violent outcomes and offering new ways to examine the causes of organizational, tactical, and ideological change. The project's broader impacts are especially connected to its importance for policy-makers. As an increasing number of Islamist groups are vying for power in the Muslim world, understanding what factors influence their choice of strategies and why their beliefs change is crucial for both American foreign policy in general and for devising policies that promote nonviolence in particular. The project will offer a more in-depth understanding of Islamist groups as both religious and strategic actors, and will contribute towards a better understanding of political Islam in its various manifestations.