Spatiotemporally explicit incidence analysis of plant functional groups in meta-communities (EuroDIVERSITY 040)

在群落形成过程中，根据相互作用物种的功能特征、景观物种池的大小以及景观尺度上元群落中多个相互作用物种的分散情况，进入物种和现存物种的组装可能会有不同的方向。为了预测功能生物多样性，需要了解现存群落的性状组成、进入物种的性状和时空元群落结构之间的相互作用。该提案在EURODIVERSITY CRP ASSEMBLE的背景下解决了这一问题。(A)群落组装的时间轴将从时间序列分析中理解，其中物种动态由功能性状组合解释。(B)通过元群落中植物的发生率分析来理解群落聚集的空间轴，并通过当地群落的时空安排来解释。不同破碎化程度的城市农村元群落斑块将在野外绘制。对于目标元群落的所有物种，逻辑回归模型预测了与场地肥力和干扰相关的空间显性植物物种发生率，从而为元群落的每个物种提供了斑块矩阵结构。空间上明确的统计模型需要在数年内记录目标群落周围预测栖息地的物种发生率。每个物种的定植/灭绝事件将与居住群落的距离、斑块大小和性状组成作为逻辑回归的解释变量进行拟合。这些结果将用于分析所有响应物种的功能特征。(C)将综合对汇编项目伙伴的个别分析，以找出跨越欧洲各种景观的生态差异的总体装配过程。

In community formation, the assembly of entering species and extant species can take different directions, depending on the functional traits of the interacting species, the size of the landscape species pool, and on dispersal of multiple interacting species in a metacommunity on the landscape scale. The interplay between trait composition of extant communities, traits of entering species and spatiotemporal metacommunity configuration needs to be understood for predicting functional biodiversity. The proposal addresses this issue in the context of the EURODIVERSITY CRP ASSEMBLE. (A) The temporal axis of community assembly will be understood from time series analysis where species dynamics are explained by functional trait combinations. (B) The spatial axis of community assembly will be understood from incidence analysis of plants in a metacommunity, explained by the spatiotemporal arrangement of local communities. Patches of an urban ruderal metacommunity with different degrees of fragmentation will be mapped in the field. For all species of the target metacommunity, logistic regression models predict spatially explicit plant species incidences in relation to site fertility and disturbance and thus provide the patch ¿ matrix structure for each species of the metacommunity. Spatially explicit statistical modelling requires to record species incidences in predicted habitats around a target communities during several years. Colonisation / extinction events of each species will be fitted with distance, patch size and trait composition of resident communities as explanatory variables in logistic regression. These results will be used to analyse functional traits of all responsive species. (C) Individual analyses of ASSEMBLE project partners will be synthesised to find general assembly processes across ecological differences in various European landscapes.