An Integrated Simulation Framework to Explore Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Slum Formation

该项目是关于在世界各地迅速发展的城市中建立贫民窟（也称为非正式或棚户区）形成模式。 目前，9亿多人，即世界城市人口的三分之一，生活在贫民窟中，其中大多数在发展中国家。 这一现象对健康、安全、贩运、环境和其他全球关注的问题产生了影响。 贫民窟一直是许多政策行动的目标，但尽管如此，贫民窟内的条件并没有得到很大改善。 许多旨在改善住房条件的政策往往不是基于对贫民窟的经验性理解。 因此，研究这些经验问题非常重要。(1)贫民窟是如何形成和扩大的？(2)它们是在何时何地形成的？以及（3）哪些类型的结构变革和/或政策干预可以改善城市贫民的住房条件？ 本计画将发展一个整合离散事件模拟、主体建模与地理资讯系统的建模架构。 这一新的模拟框架将有助于解释和预测城市贫民窟形成的时空模式。 该模型将使决策者和规划者能够在执行实际政策之前分析其政策行动对贫民窟的影响。 一个成功的模式可以导致有效的政策干预，不仅有助于改善城市贫民的住房条件，而且有助于贫民窟人口的总体福利，包括卫生、教育和环境可持续性。虽然该框架将在印度的一个城市阿赫梅达巴德进行校准和验证，但将DES、GIS和ABM整合到一个框架中的技术发展可用于研究发展中国家和发达国家的其他城市系统。除了这项研究的城市政策应用外，该项目还将通过让未来的科学家和研究人员参与该项目，为他们的发展做出贡献。在美国，一名博士后研究员将得到支持，印度环境规划和技术大学中心的研究生和教师将积极参与并与之合作。 该项目还包括一个社区发展部分，由一个与印度贫民窟社区合作的非政府组织参与。 该小组将通过对建模工作的各个方面作出贡献，例如协助绘制贫民窟地图，帮助增强贫民窟社区人民的权能。在这些组织的帮助下，我们希望介绍该框架，并将研究结果传播给印度的各个利益相关者，寻求将该框架推广到其他城市的方法，并在地理和空间科学界对这一主题产生进一步的研究兴趣。一旦完成，模型和相关数据将通过网站公开提供，供其他感兴趣的人使用。

This project is about developing a model of slum (also known as informal or squatter settlements) formation in rapidly growing cities around the world. More than 900 million people, or a third of the world's urban population, live in slums today, the majority of them in the developing world. This phenomenon has implications for health, security, trafficking, environmental, and other issues of global concern. Slums have been the target of many policy actions, but despite these, conditions within slums have not improved much. Many of the policies aimed at improving housing conditions are often not based on an empirical understanding of slums. It is thus important to investigate these empirical questions. (1) How do slums form and expand? (2) Where and when are they formed? and (3) What types of structural changes and/or policy interventions could improve housing conditions for urban poor? This project will develop a modeling framework that is an integration of Discrete-Event Simulation (DES), Agent-based Modeling (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS). This novel simulation framework will help explain and predict the spatio-temporal patterns of slum formation in cities. The model will allow policymakers and planners to analyze the impacts of their policy actions on the slums before implementing the actual policies. A successful model could lead to effective policy interventions that could contribute not only to improving housing conditions for the urban poor, but also to the general welfare of the slum population including health, education and environmental sustainability. While the framework will be calibrated and validated for a city in India, Ahmedabad, the technological development of integrating DES, GIS, and ABM into a single framework could be used to study other urban systems both in the developing and developed world. In addition to the urban policy applications of this research, this project will contribute to the development of future scientists and researchers by involving them in the project. In the US, a post-doctoral researcher will be supported and there will be active involvement of and collaboration with graduate students and faculty at India's Center for Environmental Planning and Technology University. The project also contains a community development component through the engagement of a non-governmental organization working with slum communities in India. This group will help empower people in slum communities by contributing various aspects of the modeling efforts, for example, their assistance in the mapping of slums. With the help of these organizations we expect to introduce the framework and disseminate the findings to various stakeholders in India, seek ways to generalize the framework to apply it in other cities, and generate further research interest in the geography and spatial sciences community about this topic. Once completed, the model and associated data will be made publicly available via a website to be used by others interested in it.