Collaborative Research: Understanding Relationships between Dual-Polarimetric In-cloud Microphysics and Satellite-Observed Cumulus Cloud Properties to Predict Lightning Character

有了这一奖项，研究人员将研究当对流云开始产生闪电时，不断增长和演变的对流云中发生的物理过程。研究将利用：基于卫星的云观测和反演的云特性，包括地球静止业务环境卫星和第二代气象卫星的时间序列(5-15分钟)和第二代气象卫星的可见光和红外(IR)测量；S波段1988年美国国家气象局监视的双极化多普勒雷达观测；地面甚高频闪电测绘阵列观测(例如，在阿拉巴马州北部、俄克拉荷马州中部)；在巴西主要降水系统的云过程期间收集的观测：对云解析模拟和全球降水测量(Chuva)活动的贡献；从中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)等卫星和地面，如从气溶胶机器人网络(AERONET)，反演的气溶胶观测。该奖项旨在解决闪电预测中的一个基本问题：多尺度过程的组合如何影响总闪电产量？其推论是：我们如何在闪电预报中获得更长的提前时间(10-15分钟)？具体目标是：(1)通过收集和解释高时间和空间分辨率的空间和地面遥感观测的水流星和气溶胶类型、数量和分布，提高对0-1小时时间框架内闪电演变的物理过程和前兆信号的理解；(2)利用地球同步卫星观测、雷达和模型的组合数据，寻求在更长的提前时间(~30-45分钟)和更高的精度下提高闪电数量的短期预报技能；(3)通过将科学发现直接转化为学生，并通过课程改进间接支持研究生和本科生水平的大学教育。更广泛的影响将是提高对固有难以观测的闪电过程的理解，更熟练的0-1小时定量闪电短时预报，以及利用WSR-88D双极化数据。改进的闪电短时预报将使普通公众受益，特别是因闪电扰乱地面作业而蒙受巨大成本的航空业。相对较少的研究利用以卫星数据为重点的组合数据集，建立了与闪电临近预报有关的物理关系。鉴于GOES-R高级基线成像仪和地球同步闪电测绘仪预计将于2016年以及气象卫星第三代闪电成像仪于2019年进行的新观测，将WSR-88D雷达与卫星结合使用是及时的。此外，与其他大学科学家和研究生的合作将进一步将这项研究扩展到更大的学术和教育界。

With this award, the investigators will examine physical processes occurring in growing and evolving convective clouds as they begin to produce lightning. The study will utilize: Satellite-based cloud observations and retrieved cloud properties, including time-series (5-15-min) of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) visible and infrared (IR) measurements; S-band dual-polarimetric National Weather Service Surveillance 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar observations across the United States; Ground-based VHF Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) observations (e.g., over Northern Alabama, Central Oklahoma); Observations collected during the Cloud processes of the main precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribution to cloud resolving modeling and to the Global Precipitation Measurement(CHUVA) campaign; Retrieved aerosol observations from satellites such as MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and ground, such as from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The award seeks to address a fundamental question in lightning prediction: How does the combination of multi-scale processes influence total lightning production? The corollary to this is: How do we obtain a longer lead time (10-15 min) in lightning forecasting?The specific goals are: (1) To improve understanding of the physical processes and precursory signals of lightning evolution within the 0-1 h timeframe through the collection and interpretation of high-temporal and spatial resolution space- and ground-based remote sensing observations of hydrometeor and aerosol type, amount and distribution; (2) To seek improvement in lightning amount nowcasting skill for longer lead-time (~30-45 min) and higher accuracy using combined data from geostationary satellite observations, radar and models; (3) To significantly bolster graduate- and undergraduate-level university education directly through transition of scientific discoveries to students, and indirectly via curriculum enhancements.The Broader Impacts will be improving understanding of lightning processes that are inherently difficult to observe, more skillful 0-1 hour quantitative lightning nowcasts, and exploitation of WSR-88D dual-polarimetric data. Improved lightning nowcasts will benefit the general public, and especially the aviation industry that suffer substantial costs due to lightning-disrupted ground operations. Relatively few studies have developed physical relationships related to lightning nowcasting using combined datasets with a focus on satellite data. Use of WSR-88D radar in conjunction with satellite is timely in light of new observations from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager and Geostationary Lightning Mapper expected in 2016, and from the Meteosat Third Generation Lightning Imager in ~2019. In addition, collaboration with other university scientists and graduate students will further extend this research to the larger academic and educational community.