Collaborative Research: Understanding Relationships between Dual-Polarimetric In-cloud Microphysics and Satellite-Observed Cumulus Cloud Properties to Predict Lightning Character

有了这个奖项，研究人员将检查物理过程中发生的增长和演变的对流云，因为他们开始产生闪电。本研究将利用：基于卫星的云观测和检索的云特性，包括时间序列（5-15分钟）地球静止业务环境卫星和气象卫星第二代可见光和红外测量; 1988年国家气象局监测多普勒雷达在美国全境的S波段双极化观测;地面甚高频闪电测绘阵列（LMA）观测（例如，在北方亚拉巴马、中俄克拉荷马州上空）;在巴西主要降水系统的云过程期间收集的观测：对云解析建模和全球降水测量活动的贡献;从卫星（如中分辨率成像光谱仪）和地面（如从AERONET）检索的气溶胶观测。该奖项旨在解决闪电预测中的一个基本问题：多尺度过程的组合如何影响总的闪电产生？由此得出的推论是：我们如何在闪电预报中获得更长的提前时间（10-15分钟）？具体目标是：（1）通过收集和解释关于水凝物和气溶胶类型、数量和分布的高时空分辨率空基和地基遥感观测数据，增进对0-1小时时间范围内闪电演变的物理过程和观测信号的了解;（2）寻求改进闪电量临近预报技术，以延长预报时间（~30-45分钟），利用地球静止卫星观测、雷达和模型的综合数据提高准确度;（3）直接通过向学生传授科学发现，间接通过加强课程设置，大力加强研究生和本科生教育。更广泛的影响将是提高对闪电过程的认识，这些闪电过程本来就难以观察，更熟练的0-1小时定量闪电临近预报，以及WSR-88 D双极化数据的开发。改进的闪电临近预报将使公众受益，特别是航空业，由于闪电中断的地面操作，航空业遭受了巨大的成本。相对较少的研究开发了物理关系的闪电临近预报使用组合数据集，重点是卫星数据。鉴于GOES-R高级基线成像仪和地球同步闪电成像仪预计将于2016年进行新的观测，以及气象卫星第三代闪电成像仪将于2019年进行新的观测，WSR-88 D雷达与卫星的结合使用是及时的。此外，与其他大学科学家和研究生的合作将进一步将这项研究扩展到更大的学术和教育界。

With this award, the investigators will examine physical processes occurring in growing and evolving convective clouds as they begin to produce lightning. The study will utilize: Satellite-based cloud observations and retrieved cloud properties, including time-series (5-15-min) of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) visible and infrared (IR) measurements; S-band dual-polarimetric National Weather Service Surveillance 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar observations across the United States; Ground-based VHF Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) observations (e.g., over Northern Alabama, Central Oklahoma); Observations collected during the Cloud processes of the main precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribution to cloud resolving modeling and to the Global Precipitation Measurement(CHUVA) campaign; Retrieved aerosol observations from satellites such as MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and ground, such as from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The award seeks to address a fundamental question in lightning prediction: How does the combination of multi-scale processes influence total lightning production? The corollary to this is: How do we obtain a longer lead time (10-15 min) in lightning forecasting?The specific goals are: (1) To improve understanding of the physical processes and precursory signals of lightning evolution within the 0-1 h timeframe through the collection and interpretation of high-temporal and spatial resolution space- and ground-based remote sensing observations of hydrometeor and aerosol type, amount and distribution; (2) To seek improvement in lightning amount nowcasting skill for longer lead-time (~30-45 min) and higher accuracy using combined data from geostationary satellite observations, radar and models; (3) To significantly bolster graduate- and undergraduate-level university education directly through transition of scientific discoveries to students, and indirectly via curriculum enhancements.The Broader Impacts will be improving understanding of lightning processes that are inherently difficult to observe, more skillful 0-1 hour quantitative lightning nowcasts, and exploitation of WSR-88D dual-polarimetric data. Improved lightning nowcasts will benefit the general public, and especially the aviation industry that suffer substantial costs due to lightning-disrupted ground operations. Relatively few studies have developed physical relationships related to lightning nowcasting using combined datasets with a focus on satellite data. Use of WSR-88D radar in conjunction with satellite is timely in light of new observations from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager and Geostationary Lightning Mapper expected in 2016, and from the Meteosat Third Generation Lightning Imager in ~2019. In addition, collaboration with other university scientists and graduate students will further extend this research to the larger academic and educational community.