Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Electoral Violence in New Democracies: The Institutional Foundations of Peaceful Transitions

该项目研究选举委员会和法庭是否能够减少新民主国家的选举暴力风险。程序正义的研究表明，只要程序被认为是公平的，个人就会接受他们认为不公平的结果。该项目假设，只要有合格和独立的选举委员会和法庭使选举合法化，并保证今天的失败者能够参加明天的选举，那些选举失败者就有可能接受选举结果，不使用暴力。这些论点在比较案例研究和统计分析中得到了检验。智力价值：这个项目有四个重要贡献。第一，注重确保自由和公正选举的机构（即，该项目审查可能对民主至关重要的机构。第二，通过关注选举治理和程序确定性的制度化，研究为多元社会中众所周知的民主不稳定问题提出了新的解决方案。第三，通过将EMB视为限制当权者权力的机构，该项目挑战了民主是精英重新分配财富以换取大众沉默的可信承诺的观点。相反，新民主国家的选举产生了一个可信的承诺问题，EMB可以帮助克服这个问题，从而确保和平选举。最后，这个项目有助于内战文学解释为什么一些民主过渡变成暴力，而其他人没有。通过对加纳和肯尼亚的案例研究，以及对1990年至2010年撒哈拉以南非洲所有选举的跨国统计分析，对这一论点进行了评估。首先，通过研究不同类型的选举管理机构及其对人们对选举公平性的看法的影响，这项研究可以帮助决策者、捐助组织和非政府组织设计能够改善新民主国家选举治理的选举管理机构，从而减少选举暴力的可能性。其次，这项研究还可以帮助选举观察员更好地了解公民如何评估选举，因此，这项研究的结果可以用来教育未来的选举观察员，让他们了解公民在评估选举公平性时最重要的是什么。第三，通过收集关于选举管理机构和选举暴力的数据，该项目将使研究选举和选举机构的学者以及主要关注政治暴力的学者受益。

This project examines whether electoral commissions and tribunals can reduce the risk of electoral violence in new democracies. Research in procedural justice shows that individuals will accept outcomes they perceive as unfair as long as the procedure is perceived as fair. The project hypothesizes that those who lose elections are likely to accept the results and refrain from using violence as long as competent and independent election commissions and tribunals exist to legitimize elections and guarantee that today's losers can compete in tomorrow's elections. These arguments are tested in comparative case studies and statistical analyses.Intellectual Merit: This project makes four important contributions. First, by focusing on institutions that secure free and fair elections (i.e., electoral management bodies or EMBs), this project examines institutions that may be critical to democracy. Second, by focusing on electoral governance and the institutionalization of procedural certainty, the research suggests new solutions to well-known problems of democratic instability in plural societies. Third, by examining EMBs as institutions that limit the incumbent's power, this project challenges the idea that democracy is a credible commitment by elites to redistribute wealth in exchange for the masses' quiescence. Rather, elections in new democracies produce a credible commitment problem and that EMBs can help overcome this problem and so ensure peaceful elections. Finally, this project contributes to the civil war literature by explaining why some democratic transitions turn violent while others do not. The argument is assessed through case studies of Ghana and Kenya, as well as a cross-national statistical analysis of all elections in sub-Sahara Africa between 1990 and 2010.Broader Impact: This research will have broader impacts in at least three ways. First, by examining different types of electoral management bodies and their effects on people's perceptions about the fairness of elections, this research can help policymakers, donor organizations and NGOs design electoral management bodies which can improve electoral governance in new democracies, and thus reduce the likelihood of electoral violence. Second, the research can also help election observers better understand how citizens evaluate elections and as such, the results from this research can be used to educate future election observers about what citizens find most important when they evaluate the fairness of an election. Third, by collecting data on both electoral management bodies and electoral violence, this project will benefit scholars who study elections and electoral institutions as well as those who focus mainly on political violence.