Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Effect of Energy-Saving Regulations on the Location of Manufacturing

本博士论文研究项目将考察中国地区节能监管差异对制造业区位和增长的影响。 由于不同的环境法规在不同的司法管辖区，即污染避难所假说引起的工业再分配的关注，长期以来一直引起地理学家和经济学家的兴趣。 更严格的环境法规可能会增加污染企业的减排成本，降低其竞争力，并将其转移到法规较宽松的地区。 这一过程使管制较松的地区遭受更多的污染，管制较严的地区失去工作。 利用中国2002 - 2010年的行业层面和企业层面的面板数据，该博士生将研究省际节能监管差异是否影响了制造业的区位。 分析将集中在三个方面：两位数的行业层面和企业层面的就业，企业层面的位置选择，和企业层面的增长。 计量经济学分析将适用于所有省份的总体政策影响，并仅限于沿着省边界的县。 后一种分析应有助于确定边境地区的制造活动是否有更多的突然变化，并确定跨界监管变化所造成的变化的地理范围的差异。 本研究将使用广义差分模型、条件logit模型和多水平模型进行估算。本研究项目将推进关于污染避难所假设和环境管制成本的基础知识。 它将通过使用多种估计方法，在同一样本框架内采用行业总体和公司一级的数据，查明衡量产业搬迁时的常见偏差。 它将比较命令和控制政策与基于市场的政策的效果，并将两者纳入估计。 该项目将利用全面的数据集和估计方法，衡量政策引起的产业搬迁和替代政策方法的相对优势。项目研究结果将为中国不同地区未来的节能、能源消耗和自然资源消耗提供指导。 这些发现应该有助于改善目前的政策框架，许多国家的政府可以利用这些框架来实现能源效率目标，同时减少负面影响。 中国等国家分散监管的政策含义与国际气候变化政策的影响高度相关，特别是碳泄漏和加入国际温室气体减排承诺的国家竞争力丧失的问题。作为博士论文研究改进奖，该项目将提供支持，使有前途的学生建立一个独立的研究生涯。

This doctoral dissertation research project will examine the effect of regulatory differences in regional energy savings on the location and growth of manufacturing industries in China. The concern for industrial redistribution induced by different environmental regulations across jurisdictions, namely the pollution-haven hypothesis, has long interested geographers and economists. A stricter environmental regulation may increase polluting firms' abatement costs, reduce their competitiveness, and shift them to areas with laxer regulations. This process makes areas with laxer regulations suffer from more pollution, and areas with stricter regulations lose jobs. Using industry-level and firm-level panel data from 2002 to 2010 in China, the doctoral student will investigate whether inter-provincial regulatory differences in energy saving affected the location of manufacturing industries. The analysis will focus on three aspects: two-digit industry-level and firm-level employment, firm-level location choice, and firm-level growth. The econometric analyses will be applied to all provinces for aggregate policy effects and restrictively to counties along provincial borders. The latter analyses should help identify whether there are more abrupt changes in manufacturing activities in border areas and identify differences in the geographical scope of the changes that result from a regulation change across borders. Generalized difference-in-differences models, conditional logit models, and multi-level models will be used for estimation.This research project will advance basic knowledge about the pollution-haven hypothesis and the cost of environmental regulations. It will identify common biases in measuring industry relocation by employing both industry-aggregate and firm-level data with the same sample frame using multiple estimation methods. It will compare the effect of a command-and-control policy with that of a market-based one by incorporating both in the estimation. With comprehensive datasets and estimation methods, the project will measure policy-induced industrial relocation and the relative strength of alternative policy approaches. Project findings will shed light on future energy saving, energy consumption, and natural resource consumption in different areas in China. The findings should help improve the current policy frameworks that governments in many nations can use to meet energy-efficiency targets with fewer adverse impacts. The policy implications of the decentralized regulation in nations like China are highly relevant to the impacts of international climate change policies, especially the issues of carbon leakage and loss of competitiveness for countries that joined international commitments of greenhouse gas reduction. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this project will provide support to enable a promising student to establish an independent research career.