MPS-BIO: Dynamics and stability of plant-pollinator mutualistic networks in response to ecological perturbations

该项目将推进旨在研究生态群落的网络分析的理论框架，以回答有关灭绝和入侵对群落稳定性和生物多样性的影响的基本和应用问题。研究人员引入了植物-传粉者互惠生态系统的动态布尔网络模型，该模型描述了它们的形成和稳定性。他们将扩展模型以研究对生态系统结构的扰动，特别是一个或多个物种的永久或临时迁移(灭绝)或引入(入侵)。这将允许评估哪些物种和生态系统属性有助于生态系统对灾难性故障的敏感性，以及哪些对稳定的贡献最大。该项目将利用高性能计算来模拟不同生态群落的形成和动态。动态模拟的结果将被提炼成新的图论分析和措施。这个项目还将为一些相关的理论研究提供信息，这些研究涉及过渡物种(那些不在稳定群落中，但在动态再平衡期间暂时存在的物种)、其他互惠和天敌相互作用、复合相互作用和依赖于上下文的相互作用的作用。这个项目是基于动态网络理论在互惠生态网络中的应用，其独特的挑战也将扩大关于网络理论的一般应用和用途的知识体系。解决环境扰动的影响的必要性日益迫切；现有生态社区物种的增加或丧失可能对社区和社区所在的更大的生态系统产生深远的影响。例如，最近传粉者数量的迅速下降对全球农业和粮食安全构成了严重威胁。这个项目将促进我们对这些复杂系统如何运作的了解；只有当我们能够预测环境扰动的影响时，我们才能采取行动防止或改善不受欢迎的结果。该项目不仅涉及对社区稳定至关重要的物种和群落结构，还将促进对社区操作的评估，例如为本地蜜蜂提供花卉资源以造福果农，从而在面临干扰时带来预期的管理结果。

This project will advance the theoretical framework of network analysis aimed toward the study of ecological communities, in order to answer basic and applied questions concerning the impacts of extinctions and invasions on community stability and biodiversity. The investigators have introduced a dynamic Boolean network model of plant-pollinator mutualistic ecosystems that describes their formation and stability. They will expand the model to examine perturbations to ecosystem structure, specifically the permanent or temporary removal (extinction) or introduction (invasion) of one or more species. This will allow for assessment of which species and ecosystem properties contribute to the susceptibility of an ecosystem to catastrophic failure, and which contribute most to stability. The project will make use of high-performance computing to model the formation and dynamics of diverse ecological communities. The results of the dynamic simulations will be distilled into novel graph theoretical analyses and measures. This project will also inform a number of related theoretical studies on the importance of transient species (those absent from stable communities, but temporarily present during dynamical re-equilibration), the role of other mutualistic and natural enemy interactions, composite interactions, and context-dependent interactions. This project is based upon an application of dynamic network theory to mutualistic ecological networks, the unique challenges of which will also expand the body of knowledge concerning network theory's general applications and uses. The need to address the impacts of environmental perturbations is increasingly urgent; the addition or loss of species to existing ecological communities can have far-reaching consequences for both the community and the greater ecosystem in which the community is embedded. For example, the recent, rapid decline in pollinator levels poses a serious risk to global agriculture and food security. This project will advance our knowledge of how these complex systems function; only if we can anticipate the effects of environmental perturbations can we act to prevent or ameliorate undesired outcomes. This project will not only address species and community structures that are critical to community stability, but will also facilitate assessment of community manipulations, such as floral resource provisioning for native bees to benefit fruit growers, that bring about desired management outcomes in the face of perturbations.