Collaborative Research: Integrated Real-Time Modeling System for Heliospheric Space Weather Forecasting

这笔赠款是为2012年NASA-NSF空间天气建模合作伙伴关系下选定和资助的一个项目提供部分支持。这是一项合作努力，由乔治梅森大学领导，马里兰大学和加州大学伯克利分校也参与其中，并与美国宇航局戈达德太空飞行中心进一步合作。其目标是将多个成熟的基于物理的模块结合在一起，为日球层空间天气研究和预报开发一个改进的集成实时模拟系统。它建立在现有能力的基础上，该能力结合了日球层的数值MHD模型、背景太阳风的经验模型和近太阳扰动的半解析模型。这种实用的方法忽略了太阳磁喷发过程的细节，使用对产生的日冕物质抛射(CME)的观测来确定其几何和运动学表示，并将相应的流体动力云发射到日球层计算区域，在那里它随着与背景太阳风的相互作用而演变。对现有模型套件的改进包括模拟不断演变的背景太阳风、向模型中发射更真实的日冕物质抛射几何形状、实现集合预报以及对模拟情景进行即时评估。此外，还将包括新的模块，以模拟突出的现象和效果。其中最关键的是：对太阳耀斑(脉冲事件)和行星和航天器的行星际冲击(渐变事件)造成的太阳高能粒子事件的预测，以及对地球向南的行星际磁场事件的预测。最后，该项目将开发更多的模式产出，例如用于与遥感观测进行直接比较的合成成像，并将增强该系统的灵活性，以便纳入其他机构开发的模式组件和初始化。完成后，增强和改进的日球层模式套装将交付给社区协调模式中心，供科学界使用，并最终过渡到用于业务空间天气预报。这项工作的结果将有助于对CME和SEP事件在地球和太阳系其他地点的到来提供准确的预测，这是国家空间天气的高度优先需要。该项目的教育部分包括博士后和研究生的参与。

This grant is for partial support of a project selected and funded under the 2012 NASA-NSF partnership for Space Weather Modeling Collaborations. It is a collaborative effort, led by George Mason University and with participation also from University of Maryland and University of California-Berkeley and with further collaboration also with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The objective is to bring together multiple mature physics-based modules to develop an improved integrated real-time modeling system for heliospheric space weather research and forecasting. It builds on an existing capability that combines a numerical MHD model for the heliosphere, an empirical model for the background solar wind, and a semi-analytic model for the near-Sun disturbances. Ignoring the specifics of a magnetic eruption process at the Sun, this practical approach uses observations of the resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) to determine its geometric and kinematic representation and launches a corresponding hydrodynamic cloud into the heliospheric computational domain, where it evolves as it interacts with the background solar wind. Improvements to the existing model suite include simulation of the evolving background solar wind, launching more realistic geometric shapes of CMEs into the model, enabling ensemble forecasting, and performing on-the-fly evaluation of the simulated scenarios. In addition, new modules will be included to model outstanding phenomena and effects. The most critical of these are: the prediction of solar energetic particles (SEPs) events caused by solar flares (impulsive events) and interplanetary shocks (gradual events) at planets and spacecraft, and the prediction of southward interplanetary magnetic field events at Earth. Finally, the project will develop additional model outputs, such as synthetic imaging for direct comparison with remote observations, and will enhance the flexibility of the system to allow for the inclusion of model components and initializations developed by others.When completed, the enhanced and improved heliospheric model suite will be delivered to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) for access by the scientific community and eventual transition to use for operational space weather forecasting. The results of this effort will help provide accurate predictions for the arrival of CME and SEP events at Earth and other locations in the solar system, which is a high priority national space weather need. Educational components of the project include the participation of postdocs and graduate students.