Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Ethnic Distance and Voter Behavior in Post-Conflict African Democracies

该合同符合2013年3月26日颁布的《2013年综合和进一步持续拨款法案》（P.L. 113-6）第五章第543节B部分。该项目调查了种族与冲突后社会投票的关系，这是发展政治稳定、促进民主化和推进美国外交政策努力的关键问题。一般认为，选民倾向于支持来自同一种族、民族、宗教或地区群体的候选人。这在非洲是一个特别重要的发现，因为那里的国家种族多样化，民主是新生的、薄弱的，选民无法获得关于候选人、政党和民主的重要信息。本研究将开启族群政治研究的新课题：族群距离研究。大量研究发现，非洲选民最有可能投票给来自自己种族的候选人，即他们的“同种族”。然而，这些研究未能解释种族如何影响那些在竞选中没有共同种族候选人的投票行为。据估计，平均40%的非洲人口将面临没有同种族候选人的总统选举。因此，由于关注共同种族，我们对种族如何影响这40%的政治行为的理解是非常有限的。这个项目试图解释种族在决定那些没有共同种族候选人的投票偏好中的作用。智力优势：该项目引入了“种族接近”的概念，并通过在利比里亚进行的一项调查来衡量这一概念。它调查了种族相似性是否能更有力地预测选民行为的可能性。这一点很重要，因为这意味着被广泛认为有利于民主的多民族联盟（因为它们减少了国内冲突）最有可能在种族群体足够相似的社会中形成并维持下去。多样性可能不是阻碍建立多种族联盟的关键因素，但不同种族群体之间的差异程度可能是最重要的因素。更广泛的影响：如果种族距离对联盟的建立很重要，而种族身份是可以改变的，那么它也可以用于美国的国家建设。虽然利比里亚本身对美国的安全利益很重要，因为加强利比里亚的民主可能会给该地区带来更大的稳定，但了解利比里亚的种族如何促进或阻碍多民族政治联盟的形成，可以为了解它如何在世界其他地区发挥作用提供基础。在过去10年里，美国在利比里亚内战后的重建中投入了大量资金。这项研究的结果可以为资源的有效利用提供见解：虽然资金用于发展基础设施和民主制度是必要的，但将一些资源用于和解，以公开运动的形式，以公正的方式突出各群体之间的种族相似性，而不是泛泛的民族认同呼吁，可能会加强民主制度的运作。更广泛地说，美国及其盟友一直难以解决困扰伊拉克和阿富汗等国的种族分歧问题。事实证明，这些种族对立往往会破坏这些国家促进民主的努力。本研究的结果对那些危重病例也具有指导意义。

This award satisfies Division B, Title V, Sec. 543 of the Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act of 2013 (P.L. 113-6, enacted on March 26, 2013). The project investigates how ethnicity is related to voting in post-conflict societies, a critical issue in developing political stability, promoting democratization, and advancing US foreign policy efforts. It is generally understood that voters prefer to support candidates who come from their same racial, ethnic, religious, or regional group. This is a particularly important finding in Africa, where countries are ethnically diverse, democracy is new and weak, and voters lack access to important information about candidates, parties, and democracy. This study will open a new research agenda in ethnic politics: the study of ethnic distance. Numerous studies have found that voters in Africa are most likely to vote for candidates from their own ethnic group, their "co-ethnics". However, these studies fail to explain how ethnicity influences the voting behavior of those who do not have a co-ethnic candidate in the race. By some estimates, on average, 40% of the African population will face presidential elections in which they do not have a co-ethnic candidate for whom to vote. Thus, because of the focus on co-ethnicity, our understanding of how ethnicity influences the political behavior of this 40% is extremely limited. This project seeks to explain the role of ethnicity in determining the voting preferences of those without a co-ethnic candidate. Intellectual Merit: The project introduces the concept of "ethnic proximity", and measures it through a survey conducted in Liberia. It investigates the possibility that ethnic similarity is a more robust predictor of voter behavior. This is important because it implies that multiethnic coalitions, which are widely believed to benefit democracy (because they reduce civil conflict), are most likely to form and be sustained in societies with sufficiently similar ethnic groups. Diversity may not be the key factor that prohibits building multiethnic coalitions, but it could be the degree of difference among the various ethnic groups that is of greatest consequence. Broader Impacts: If ethnic distance matters for coalition building, and ethnic identities are changeable, then it can also be used in US nation-building efforts. While Liberia is important for US security interests in its own right, as strengthening democracy in Liberia will likely bring greater stability to the region, understanding how ethnicity promotes or hinders the formation of multi-ethnic political coalitions in Liberia can provide a basis to understand how it would work in other areas of the world. The United States has invested substantial amounts of money in Liberia's post-civil war reconstruction over the past 10 years. This study's results could provide insight into the effective use of resources: while money spent developing infrastructure and democratic institutions is necessary, devoting some resources to reconciliation, in the form of public campaigns to highlight ethnic similarities across groups in an unbiased manner rather than blanketed national identity appeals, may enhance the functioning of democratic institutions. More broadly, the US and its allies have struggled to address the ethnic divisions that plague countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan. These ethnic rivalries have often proven spoilers in efforts to promote democracy in these nations. The findings of this study will be instructive for those critical cases as well.