Direct and Indirect Impacts of Credit Scoring for Small and Medium Enterprises

建议标题：信用评分对中小企业的直接和间接影响建议编号：SES-1326433主要调查者：Dean Karlan缺乏融资机会仍然是低收入和中等收入国家小公司增长的核心挑战之一。许多中小型企业(SME)的资本回报率很高，但如果银行无法识别这些借款人，它们可能会限制放贷或资金分配不当，从而限制生产和就业增长。许多低收入和中等收入国家没有信用局或其他有效的公共系统来收集对筛选有价值的信息，这进一步加剧了确定高回报借款人的挑战。虽然缺乏足够的融资可能会限制个别企业的扩张，但向单一企业提供信贷可能会对其他企业和消费者产生溢出效应。公司在竞争对手和供应商的网络中运营，这些业务也将受到提供给单一贷款接受者的信贷的影响。例如，标准经济理论表明，当竞争对手获得信贷时，竞争对手的公司将看到需求减少。与此同时，对供应商投入的需求增加可能会导致上游盈利能力的提高。经典的经济发展理论强调了这些联系在发展腾飞中的重要性。本研究使用随机对照试验方法来评估向中小企业提供信贷的影响，考察了对接受贷款的公司的直接影响，以及对竞争对手和通过供应链与被处理企业联系的公司的间接溢出影响。菲律宾一家大型开发银行正在全国45家分行实施新的信用评分系统。新系统将处理所有中小企业贷款，并为每个贷款申请者分配信用评分。信用评分低于自动贷款审批分界点的特定范围将被随机批准或拒绝。随机设计在中小企业贷款申请者获得信贷方面产生外生差异，使我们能够衡量信贷对公司的影响。这项评估的一个重要和创新的方面是它侧重于公司之间的溢出效应。该项目将通过调查贷款申请者供应链中的公司来衡量垂直溢出，并利用不同行业和市场获得信贷的公司数量的差异来衡量与治疗和控制业务直接竞争的公司的水平溢出。确定竞争者和供应链市场以及样本企业的横向和纵向互动构成了研究低收入和中等收入国家企业的一种新方法。这些发现与政策高度相关。有证据表明，向一家公司提供信贷具有积极的市场溢出效应，尽管这可能会加剧竞争或允许供应商进行更多投资，这将为增加获得信贷的机会提供强有力的理由。另一方面，如果获得信贷的公司的收益完全是以牺牲竞争对手的损失为代价的，那么补贴信贷将收效甚微，这表明小额信贷的收益可能被高估了。

AbstractProposal Title: Direct and Indirect Impacts of Credit Scoring for Small and Medium EnterprisesProposal Number: SES - 1326433Principal Investigator: Dean KarlanLack of access to finance remains one of the core challenges to small firm growth in low- and middle-income countries. Many small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have high returns to capital but if banks cannot identify these borrowers, they may restrict lending or misallocate funds, limiting production and employment growth. Many low- and middle-income countries do not have credit bureaus or other effective public systems that aggregate information valuable for screening, further exacerbating the challenge of identifying high return borrowers. While a lack of adequate financing may constrain the expansion of individual firms, the provision of credit to a single business is likely to have spillover effects on other firms and on consumers. Firms operate in a web of competitors and suppliers, and these businesses will also be affected by credit that is provided to a single loan recipient. For example, standard economic theory suggests that competitor firms will see decreased demand when competitors gain access to credit. At the same time, increased demand for supplier inputs can lead to increased upstream profitability. Classic theories of economic development stress the importance of these linkages in the takeoff to development.This study uses a randomized controlled trial methodology to evaluate the impact of providing credit to SMEs, examining both the direct effects on recipient firms and the indirect spillover effects on competitors and firms linked to treated businesses through supply chains. A large development bank in the Philippines is implementing a new credit scoring system at 45 branches across the country. The new system will process all SME loans and assign a credit score to each loan applicant. Credit scores falling in a certain range below the cut-off for automatic loan approval will be randomly approved or denied. The randomized design generates exogenous variation in access to credit among SME loan applicants, enabling us to measure the impact of credit on firms. An important and innovative aspect of this evaluation is its focus on spillovers across firms. The project will measure vertical spillovers by surveying firms in the supply chains of loan applicants, and exploit variation in the number of firms receiving credit in different industries and markets to measure horizontal spillovers on firms competing directly with treatment and control businesses. Identifying competitor and supply chain markets and the horizontal and vertical interactions of sample firms constitutes a new approach to the study of firms in low- and middle-income countries. The findings are highly policy relevant. Evidence that providing credit to one firm has positive market spillovers, perhaps though increasing competition or allowing suppliers to invest more, would provide a strong justification for increasing access to credit. On the other hand, if gains to the firm receiving credit come entirely at the expense of losses to its competitors, then subsidized credit would accomplish little, suggesting that the gains from microcredit may be overestimated.