Estimating the Direct and Indirect Impacts of Climate Change On Small Wetland Ecosystems

估计气候变化对小型湿地生态系统的直接和间接影响

• 批准号: RGPIN-2020-07007
• 负责人: Houlahan, Jeff
• 金额: $ 3.42万
• 依托单位: University of New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=744878
• 关键词: Estimating; Direct; Indirect; Impacts; Climate

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report in 2018 estimating the consequences of the 1.5o C increase in temperature that we are almost certain to see in the next 25 years. The evidence is unequivocal that our climate is changing, that the changes are caused by human activities and the economic and social consequences will be large and negative. Mitigation of climate change impacts is going to require reasonably accurate predictions of the effects of climate change over the next 30-100 years. Changes in temperature and precipitation are likely to have both direct and indirect impacts on small wetland communities. Direct impacts are caused by pushing some organisms outside the range of temperatures or hydro-period where they can thrive or persist and indirect impacts are caused by changing biological interactions among species within aquatic systems. One example of such a potential indirect effect caused by changes in interactions, is between green frog and wood frog tadpoles. Green frogs and wood frogs benefit from the direct effect of deeper, longer lasting ponds due to increased precipitation because they are less likely to undergo mortality as a result of pond drying. However, the beneficial effect on wood frogs of increased hydro-period may be offset or overwhelmed by increased consumption of wood frog eggs by green frog tadpoles or increased transmission of Rana virus from green frog larvae to wood frog larvae. The Houlahan lab at the University of New Brunswick in Saint John will use wood frogs in natural ponds as a model system supplemented by laboratory experiments and observations of unmanipulated systems, to examine the direct and indirect effects of warming. We will increase the temperature of six natural ponds at the Long-term Experimental Wetlands Area on CFB Gagetown in New Brunswick by ~ 6 degrees C using solar panel heating units and polyethylene tubing. Each of the manipulated ponds will be paired with a similar control pond. We will measure wood frog growth, development, survival, amphibian disease prevalence and virulence, and green frog and dragonfly larval abundance in treatment and control ponds. We will build predictive models describing the direct impacts of temperature on wood frog growth, development and survival and indirect impacts through effects of warming on wood frog predators such as green frogs and dragon fly larvae, and wood frog diseases such as chytridiomycosis and Rana virus. These predictive models will be used by policymakers and conservation professionals to develop policies and strategies to mitigate climate change impacts in natural systems.

政府间气候变化小组在2018年发布了一份报告，估计了我们几乎肯定在未来25年中肯定会看到的1.5O C升高的后果。毫无疑问的证据表明我们的气候正在发生变化，这些变化是由人类活动引起的，经济和社会后果将是巨大而负面的。缓解气候变化影响将需要对未来30 - 100年的气候变化影响进行合理准确的预测。温度和降水的变化可能对小湿地社区产生直接和间接影响。直接影响是由将某些生物推到温度范围或水力周期范围之外而引起的，在这种情况下它们可以繁殖或持续存在，并且间接影响是由于水生系统中物种之间的生物学相互作用的变化而引起的。相互作用变化引起的这种潜在间接效应的一个例子是绿色青蛙和木蛙t之间。绿色青蛙和木头青蛙受益于降水增加，较长，持久池塘的直接影响，因为它们由于池塘干燥而不太可能发生死亡率。然而，对增加水直生的木青蛙的有益作用可能会被绿色青蛙t的消耗量增加或淹没，或者淹没了绿色青蛙鸡蛋的消耗或从绿色青蛙幼虫到木头青蛙幼虫的Rana病毒的传播增加。 圣约翰新不伦瑞克大学的Houlahan实验室将在天然池塘中使用木青蛙作为模型系统，并补充了实验室实验和对未经操纵系统的观察，以检查变暖的直接和间接影响。我们将使用太阳能电池板加热单元和聚乙烯管，将新不伦瑞克省的CFB Gagetown的长期实验湿地区域的六个天然池塘的温度提高〜6摄氏度。每个操纵的池塘将与类似的对照池配对。我们将衡量木青蛙的生长，发育，生存，两栖动物疾病的患病率和毒力，以及在治疗和控制池塘中的绿色青蛙和蜻蜓幼虫丰度。我们将建立描述温度对木青蛙生长，发育和生存的直接影响的预测模型，并通过变暖对木制青蛙捕食者（如绿色青蛙和龙蝇幼虫）以及诸如chytridiyymomycisis和rana病毒等木青蛙疾病等木蛙捕食者的影响。 这些预测模型将由政策制定者和保护专业人员使用，以制定政策和策略来减轻自然系统中气候变化的影响。