Environmental Causes Of Tropical Cyclone Size and Structure Change

本项目旨在提高对热带气旋大小和结构变化的物理机制的基本认识，这些变化是由于热带气旋与环境的相互作用造成的。通过使用再分析数据集和数值模拟的两层方法，将研究与TC尺寸和结构变化（膨胀/收缩）相关的基本物理机制。更好地了解与TC尺寸/结构变化相关的物理过程对于更好地预测其未来影响至关重要。智力优势：本项目将提高对环境中产生TC大小和结构变化的基本过程的理解。TC大小和外风结构通过破坏风半径、风暴潮和降雨程度决定了登陆影响的总面积。更好地了解TC大小和外部风强度是如何受环境影响的，将有助于更好地预测这些下游影响，并最终制定更好的疏散计划。这些知识的增长将通过观测和数值模拟相结合的研究来实现。尺寸/结构变化与一些环境参数之间的关系将利用再分析数据进行探索。然后，通过检查一系列初始值和时变的全物理模拟，利用非常精细的网格和明确的潮湿物理，将建立控制环境强迫大小和结构变化的基本物理机制。更广泛的影响：在工作过程中将处理几个具有更广泛影响的领域。亚利桑那大学（UA）在制度上致力于下一代科学家的研究型教育。为此，该项目将支持博士后学者的早期职业发展和STEM学科研究生的教育。PI在支持研究生和本科生方面有着良好的记录，并在促进研究生研究方面有着良好的历史，特别是对女性和其他代表性不足的群体。我们还通过一项名为“收养学校”（AAS）的计划，将小学教育作为目标。AAS的愿景是将一所小学与一组UA人员合作，建立密切的长期关系，旨在加强与弱势社区的小学STEM教育。霍林格小学是一所双语学校，90%以上的学生是西班牙裔。本学年，我们有超过15名导师在16个不同年级的教室工作。我们的目标是为这些孩子提供榜样，拓宽他们的视野，让他们也梦想上大学。与PI一起工作的研究生是这些教室的导师，在研究过程中获得的成果将作为促进和加强STEM教育的一部分传达给这些孩子。天气，特别是tc，为STEM学习提供了一个让孩子们兴奋的信息来源。最后，这个奖项有可能对整个社会产生重大影响。一般来说，对TC活动的预测，特别是对结构变化的预测，是一个影响全球日常生活的问题。提高对与重大结构变化相关的大规模模式的理解，有助于预测能力，对我们的科学非常重要。能够充分预测影响疏散计划、波浪形成和风暴潮的规模和结构变化，有可能改善疏散计划和灾害补救。这个项目确实有潜力产生远远超出科学界的影响。

This project aims to improve basic understanding of the physical mechanisms associated with size and structure changes of a tropical cyclone (TC) due to interaction with its environment. Through a two-tiered approach using reanalysis datasets and numerical simulations, the fundamental physical mechanisms associated with TC size and structure change (expansion/contraction) will be investigated. Improved understanding of the physical processes associated with TC size/structure change is essential to better predict their future impacts.Intellectual Merit :This project will improve understanding of fundamental processes in the environment that produce TC size and structure change. TC size and outer wind structure determine the total area of landfall impact through radius of damaging winds, storm surge, and extent of rainfall. A better understanding of how TC size and outer wind strength is modified by the environment will result in better anticipation of these downstream impacts and, ultimately, better evacuation planning. These gains in knowledge will be achieved through a combined observational and numerical simulation study. The relationships between size/structure change and a number of environmental parameters will be explored using reanalysis data. Then, through examination of a series of initial-value and time varying, full-physics simulations utilizing a very fine mesh and explicit moist physics, the basic physical mechanisms that govern size and structure change from environmental forcing will be established.Broader Impacts :There are several areas of broader impact that will be addressed in the course of the work. The University of Arizona (UA) is committed institutionally to the research-based education of the next generation of scientists. Towards that end, this project will support early career development of a Postdoctoral Scholar and the education of a graduate student in a STEM discipline. The PI has a strong record of graduate and undergraduate student support and a demonstrated history of fostering graduate research, especially for women and other underrepresented groups.We also target elementary school education via a program called "Adopt-A-School" (AAS). The vision of AAS is to partner a single elementary school with a group of UA personnel to create a close, long-term relationship designed to strengthen STEM education at the elementary level with disadvantaged communities. Hollinger Elementary is a bilingual Title 1 school with a population that is over 90% Hispanic. This school year we have over 15 mentors working in 16 classrooms at all grade levels. Our goal is to provide role models and broaden the vision of these children so that they too dream of going to College. Graduate students working with the PI are mentors in these classrooms and the results gained during the course of this research are communicated to these children as part of enabling and enhancing the STEM education. Weather in general and TCs in particular, provide a source of information for STEM learning that excites the children.Finally, this award has the potential to significantly impact society as a whole. Forecasting of TC activity in general, and structure change specifically, is a problem that affects everyday people globally. Improvement of the understanding of large-scale patterns associated with significant structure change that contribute to forecasting ability is of great importance to our science. The ability to adequately forecast size and structure change, which impacts evacuation planning, wave setup and storm surge, has the potential to improve evacuation planning and disaster remediation. This project truly has the potential to have an impact far beyond the scientific community.