Collaborative Research: An Integrated Approach to Measuring Dynamic Economic Resilience Following Disasters

2011年，美国经历了创纪录的140亿美元与天气有关的灾难。第二年，超级风暴桑迪，本研究的重点，造成了大约680亿美元的损失，使其成为我们历史上第二昂贵的风暴。这些损失表明，了解一个国家如何在面对灾难时变得更有弹性是至关重要的。动态弹性，在本项目中被定义为经历灾难后“反弹”的能力，被广泛视为减少灾害造成的破坏和控制成本的一种方式，包括由个人财产所有者承担的成本，美国财政部以灾难援助的形式，以及保险/再保险部门。灾害和灾后恢复援助造成的财政损失减少了可用于其他生产性投资的资源供应。因此，这个项目与美国国家科学基金会的使命是一致的，特别是在理解如何“促进国家健康、繁荣和福利”方面。在本研究中，我们将探索弹性的一个维度——动态经济弹性——通过更好地了解纽约市地区受影响的企业在桑迪之后是如何应对的，以及它们能够恢复的程度。我们试图以一种综合的方式了解企业主的决策和更广泛的经济状况如何对弹性做出贡献。我们将为灾后恢复投资决策建模；对有代表性的企业样本进行调查，以更多地了解他们的恢复决策；并研究社区层面的条件，如就业率、劳动力特征和社区经济多样性对经济弹性和复苏的影响。该项目将采用多种分析策略，提供一个综合的整体模型，将影响灾后经济恢复力的微观、宏观和宏观因素纳入其中。将制定一个微观经济投资框架，以考虑企业主投资灾后恢复的决定。将编制一个数据库，其中包括对区域经济复苏很重要的社区一级因素。我们还将开发一个动态可计算的一般非均衡模型来分析宏观经济层面的弹性。

In 2011, the nation experienced a record fourteen, billion-dollar weather-related disasters. The next year, Superstorm Sandy, the focus of this study, caused an estimated $68 billion in losses, making it the second-costliest storm in our history. These losses show why it is critical to understand how the nation can become more resilient in the face of disasters. Dynamic resilience, defined in this project as the ability to "bounce back" after experiencing a disaster, is widely seen as a way of reducing the disruption disasters cause and of containing costs, including those borne by individual property owners, the U. S. Treasury in the form of disaster aid, and the insurance/reinsurance sector. The financial losses that result from disasters and post-disaster recovery assistance reduce the supply of resources available for other productive investment. This project is thus consistent with the mission of NSF, particularly aspects of that focus on understanding how to "advance national health, prosperity, and welfare." In this study, we will explore one dimension of resilience - dynamic economic resilience - by developing a better understanding of how affected businesses in the New York City area coped following Sandy and the extent to which they were able to recover. We seek to understand in an integrated way how both business owners' decisions and broader economic conditions contribute to resilience. We will model post-disaster recovery investment decisions; conduct a survey with a representative sample of businesses to learn more about their recovery decision making; and examine the effects of community-level conditions such as employment rates, labor force characteristics, and community economic diversity on dimensions of economic resilience and recovery. The project will employ several analytic strategies to provide a holistic and integrated model that incorporates micro-, miso-, and macro-level factors affecting economic resilience following disasters. A microeconomic investment framework will be developed to take into account business owners' decisions to invest in post-disaster recovery. A database will be developed consisting of community-level factors important for regional economic recovery. We will also develop a dynamic computable general disequilibrium model to analyze resilience at the macroeconomic level.