Collaborative Research: An Integrated Approach to Measuring Dynamic Economic Resilience Following Disasters

2011年，美国经历了创纪录的140亿美元与天气有关的灾害。第二年，超级风暴桑迪，这项研究的重点，造成了约680亿美元的损失，使其成为我们历史上损失第二大的风暴。这些损失表明，理解国家如何在面对灾难时变得更有弹性是至关重要的。动态复原力，在这个项目中被定义为在经历灾难后“恢复”的能力，被广泛认为是减少灾难造成的破坏和控制成本的一种方式，包括由个人财产所有者、美国财政部以灾难援助的形式承担的成本，以及保险/再保险部门。灾害造成的财政损失和灾后恢复援助减少了可用于其他生产性投资的资源供应。因此，这个项目与国家科学基金会的使命是一致的，特别是侧重于理解如何“促进国家健康、繁荣和福利”的方面。在这项研究中，我们将探索韧性的一个维度-动态经济韧性-通过更好地了解纽约市地区受影响的企业如何应对桑迪以及他们能够在多大程度上恢复。我们寻求以综合的方式理解企业主的决定和更广泛的经济状况如何有助于弹性。我们将建立灾后恢复投资决策模型；对具有代表性的企业进行调查，了解其恢复决策；考察就业率、劳动力特征和社区经济多样性等社区条件对经济韧性和复苏维度的影响。该项目将采用几种分析战略，以提供一个全面和综合的模型，其中包括影响灾害后经济复原力的微观、MISO和宏观因素。将制定一个微观经济投资框架，以考虑到企业主投资于灾后恢复的决定。将建立一个数据库，其中包括对区域经济复苏至关重要的社区一级因素。我们还将开发一个动态的可计算的一般非均衡模型，以分析宏观经济层面的弹性。

In 2011, the nation experienced a record fourteen, billion-dollar weather-related disasters. The next year, Superstorm Sandy, the focus of this study, caused an estimated $68 billion in losses, making it the second-costliest storm in our history. These losses show why it is critical to understand how the nation can become more resilient in the face of disasters. Dynamic resilience, defined in this project as the ability to "bounce back" after experiencing a disaster, is widely seen as a way of reducing the disruption disasters cause and of containing costs, including those borne by individual property owners, the U. S. Treasury in the form of disaster aid, and the insurance/reinsurance sector. The financial losses that result from disasters and post-disaster recovery assistance reduce the supply of resources available for other productive investment. This project is thus consistent with the mission of NSF, particularly aspects of that focus on understanding how to "advance national health, prosperity, and welfare." In this study, we will explore one dimension of resilience - dynamic economic resilience - by developing a better understanding of how affected businesses in the New York City area coped following Sandy and the extent to which they were able to recover. We seek to understand in an integrated way how both business owners' decisions and broader economic conditions contribute to resilience. We will model post-disaster recovery investment decisions; conduct a survey with a representative sample of businesses to learn more about their recovery decision making; and examine the effects of community-level conditions such as employment rates, labor force characteristics, and community economic diversity on dimensions of economic resilience and recovery. The project will employ several analytic strategies to provide a holistic and integrated model that incorporates micro-, miso-, and macro-level factors affecting economic resilience following disasters. A microeconomic investment framework will be developed to take into account business owners' decisions to invest in post-disaster recovery. A database will be developed consisting of community-level factors important for regional economic recovery. We will also develop a dynamic computable general disequilibrium model to analyze resilience at the macroeconomic level.