CNH-Ex: Investigating the Dynamic Intersections Among Economic Development, Urbanization, and Forest Degradation

该项目将调查经济和环境变化如何影响城市能源需求、城乡生计和城市居民赖以获得关键资源的生态系统健康之间的关系。该项目将侧重于与人类对不断变化的人口、经济和环境条件的反应导致地方一级决策的复杂方式相关的问题，这些决策可能对城市地区及其所依赖的资源系统的运作方式产生重大影响。该项目将有助于开发新的理论见解，了解在快速变化的经济、人口和环境背景下，是什么激励人类在自然资源利用方面的行为，并将增强方法能力，以确定传统上不受持续监测的地区生态系统的变化。该项目还将提高预测与不断变化的社会经济和环境条件有关的资源供需模式的能力。该项目有可能通过为旨在对抗环境退化和促进可持续城市增长的政策提供信息而造福社会。该项目将产生宝贵的数据，可通过机构保存的档案随时查阅，从而为今后的研究提供便利，并将提供特别的研究生教育和培训机会。该项目得到了美国国家科学基金会自然与人类耦合系统动态(CNH)计划的支持。最近的科学研究发现，贫困、环境退化和极端天气是非洲和许多其他发展中国家城市化的关键驱动因素。虽然2000年只有30%的非洲人口居住在城市中心，但预计到2050年这一比例将翻一番，其中大部分增长发生在中小城市。鉴于非洲城市严重依赖木炭作为能源，快速城市化可能会加剧森林退化。该项目将调查城市和农村生计与明博林地生态系统健康之间的相互作用。Miombo林地是非洲最广泛的森林生态系统，覆盖南部非洲八个国家270万平方公里。研究人员将调查在不断变化的经济和环境背景下，地方一级关于木炭生产和消费的决定如何影响莫桑比克Miombo林地的森林退化速度。他们将研究太特市的木炭贸易，以分析同时发生的经济和环境变化如何影响人们的福祉和他们生活的景观。太特市是一个中等规模但发展迅速的城市。他们将结合社会经济分析和生态系统建模，以更好地了解正在迅速融入全球经济的较贫穷地区的森林退化。社会经济分析的结果将使改进生态系统模型成为可能，该模型考虑到木炭生产系统中消费者和生产者的偏好及其对森林退化速度的影响。该模型将被用来模拟各种社会、经济和环境情景下的木炭驱动的森林退化，以确定可能危及Miombo林地的可持续利用和城乡居民福祉的模式。虽然侧重于莫桑比克的具体案例研究，但分析的许多方面将有助于理解其他国家和生态系统的自然和人类系统相互耦合的动态。

This project will investigate how economic and environmental changes affect the relationships among urban energy demands, urban and rural livelihoods, and the health of ecosystems that urban residents rely on for critical resources. The project will focus on issues associated with the complex ways in which human responses to changing demographic, economic, and environmental conditions lead to local-level decisions that can have significant impacts on the ways in which urban areas and the resource systems on which they depend function. The project will help develop new theoretical insights into what incentivizes human behavior regarding natural resource use under rapidly changing economic, demographic, and environmental contexts, and it will enhance methodological capabilities to identify changes in ecosystems in locales that traditionally have not been subject to ongoing monitoring. The project also will improve capabilities to forecast patterns of resource supply and demand related to changing socioeconomic and environmental conditions. The project has the potential to benefit society by informing policies that aim to combat environmental degradation and facilitate sustainable urban growth. The project will yield valuable data that will be made readily accessible through institutionally maintained archives, thereby facilitating future research, and it will provide special graduate student education and training opportunities. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.Recent scientific research has identified poverty, environmental degradation, and extreme weather as key drivers of urbanization in Africa and in many other parts of the developing world. Although only 30 percent of the African population lived in urban centers in 2000, this percentage is projected to double by 2050, with the majority of growth occurring in small- to medium-sized cities. Given the heavy reliance on charcoal as an energy source in African cities, rapid urbanization likely will increase forest degradation. This project will investigate interactions among urban and rural livelihoods and the health of the Miombo woodland ecosystems. Miombo woodlands are the most extensive forested ecosystem in Africa, covering 2.7-million square-km throughout eight southern African countries. The researchers will investigate how local-level decisions regarding charcoal production and consumption in changing economic and environmental contexts influence rates of forest degradation in Mozambique's Miombo woodlands. They will examine the charcoal trade in Tete, a mid-sized but rapidly growing city, to analyze how simultaneous economic and environmental change impact the well-being of people and the landscapes in which they live. They will integrate socioeconomic analysis and ecosystem modeling to better understand forest degradation in poorer regions that are rapidly integrating into the global economy. The results of the socioeconomic analyses will enable the refinement of an ecosystem model that accounts for consumer and producer preferences in charcoal production systems and their impact on forest degradation rates. The model will be used to simulate charcoal-driven forest degradation under various social, economic, and environmental scenarios in order to identify patterns that could compromise the sustainable use of Miombo woodlands and the well-being of urban and rural residents. Although focusing on a specific case study in Mozambique, many facets of the analysis will be of value in understanding coupled natural and human system dynamics in other nations and ecosystems.