EAPSI: Understanding water availability through the modeling of groundwater flow and temperature of the Heihe River in China

中国青藏高原气候变暖，导致多年冻土面积减少，水资源不安全。虽然据推测，水资源可获得性将发生大规模变化，但这些变化的规模和速度尚不清楚。为了验证这一点，将为位于青藏高原北缘的黑河源头葫芦沟流域开发一个三维地下水流动和温度模型。这项研究将与北京中国地质大学著名的定量水文学和葫芦沟流域专家梁思海博士合作进行。在中国进行这项研究为收集必要的现场测量数据提供了一个独特的机会。这项研究将通过提供有关气候变化对区域水资源影响的新知识来帮助水文界。该项目将调查冻土融化和冻结如何影响地下水的储存和移动。一个耦合的水文地质模型将结合水的相变物理，允许对孔隙水冻结和融化以及渗透率与冰饱和度的关系进行建模。将通过从葫芦沟流域收集和分析新的现场数据来约束和校准模型输入。该模型的主要成果将包括：地下温度、流体压力、地下水补给和向地表排放的时空分布。模型结果将证实气候对这个分水岭的影响与科罗拉多州落基山脉的一个类似分水岭之间的关系。虽然这两个流域面临着相似的气候压力，而且都可能经历水资源的减少，但潜在的原因可能不同。这项NSF EAPSI是与中国科技部合作资助的。

A warming climate in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China has led to decreases in permafrost extent and water insecurity. While it is speculated that there will be large-scale changes in water resource availability, it is unknown at what magnitude and rate these changes will occur. To test this, a three-dimensional, groundwater flow and temperature model will be developed for the Hulugou watershed, the headwaters of the Heihe River located on the northern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This research will be conducted in collaboration with Dr. Sihai Liang, a noted expert on quantitative hydrology and the Hulugou watershed, at the China University of Geosciences in Beijing. Conducting this research in China affords a unique opportunity to gather necessary field measurements. This research will help the hydrologic community by providing new knowledge on the effect of climatic changes on regional water resources.This project will investigate how thawing and freezing permafrost affects groundwater storage and movement. A coupled hydrogeologic model will incorporate the physics of water phase change, allowing for modeling of pore water freeze and thaw and permeability dependence on ice saturation. Model inputs will be constrained and calibrated by collecting and analyzing new field data from the Hulugou watershed. Major outcomes of the model will include: spatial and temporal distributions of subsurface temperature, fluid pressure, groundwater recharge, and discharge to the land surface. Model results will corroborate relationships between climatic effects on this watershed and a similar watershed in the Rocky Mountains in Colorado. While these two watersheds are under similar climatic stresses and both potentially experiencing declines in water resources, underlying causes may differ. This NSF EAPSI is funded in collaboration with the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.