Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Explaining Post-Election Violence in Africa

该项目旨在为理解非洲选举后暴力(PEV)提供一个解释性框架。政治暴力和内部冲突文献不仅缺乏政治暴力和内部冲突文献的理论和经验处理，而且选举暴力一直在反复发生，在过去20年里，尽管战争正在减少，但选举暴力以相对稳定的速度发生。虽然关于非洲选举暴力问题的文献很少(主要是单一案例研究)，但仍然缺乏对非洲各地发生自杀性暴力的系统解释，为什么自杀性暴力在某些情况下而不在另一种情况下发生，以及从理论上对非洲大陆自杀性暴力的一般描述。这个项目旨在提供这些缺失的方面。智力价值：理论上，这项研究将提供一个理想的-典型模型，解释非洲的PEV随后将被部署在个案分析中。在经验上，它将采用多方法研究设计，提供非洲PEV的总体定量分析以及三个案例的深入案例研究--两个有PEV，一个没有PEV。这些是加纳(2012年)、尼日利亚(2011年)和科特迪瓦(2010年)最近的总统选举。案例研究包括使用半结构化专家/精英访谈、过程跟踪和话语分析的实地研究。这项研究将通过描绘PEV所涉及的机制和过程来加强安全研究，对减轻非洲和其他新民主化国家选举后的暴力具有政策影响。广泛的影响：PEV具有破坏稳定的影响，导致生命和财产损失，在最极端的情况下，导致内战。上述文献中的空白将通过关注以下问题来填补。PEV的发病率是如何解释的？所涉及的机制和过程是什么？如何解释PEV中暴力强度的差异？为什么PEV会沦为内战？成功回答这些问题将有助于全面了解和平行动，这对于提出预防和解决行动自由的有效措施至关重要，并对国际安全、冲突管理和建设和平的做法和决策产生更广泛的影响，不仅在非洲，而且在其他新民主化的社会中也是如此。由于美国作为一个卓越的全球大国深陷国际安全之中，它也会对国家安全产生影响，因为美国可能会干预电动汽车退化为内战的情况。

This project seeks to provide an explanatory framework for understanding post-election violence (PEV) in Africa. Not only has PEV received scant theoretical and empirical treatment in the political violence and internal conflict literatures, electoral violence is consistently recurring, happening at a relatively constant rate for the past two decades even as war is on the decline. While the scant literature on electoral violence in Africa (primarily single-case studies) has shed light on the dynamics involved in particular contexts, still missing are: a systematic explanation for the occurrence of PEV across Africa, why PEV occurs in certain contexts and not in others, and a theoretically grounded general account of PEV on the continent. This project aims to provide these missing aspects.Intellectual Merit: Theoretically, this research will provide an ideal-typical model that explains PEV in Africa to be subsequently deployed in the analysis of individual cases. Empirically, using a multi-method research design, it will provide aggregate quantitative analysis of PEV in Africa as well as in-depth case studies of three cases - two with and one without PEV. These are recent presidential elections in Ghana (2012), Nigeria (2011) and Cote d'Ivoire (2010). The case studies involve field research using semi-structured expert/elite interviews, process tracing, and discourse analysis. This research will enhance security studies by delineating the mechanisms and processes involved in PEV with policy implications for mitigating post-election violence in Africa and other newly democratizing states.Broader Impacts: PEV has a destabilizing effect, results in loss of lives and property, and at its most extreme, leads to civil war. The gap in the literature identified above will be filled by focusing on the following questions. What accounts for the incidence of PEV? What are the mechanisms and processes involved? How can the variance in the intensity of violence seen in PEV be explained? Why does PEV degenerate into civil war? Successfully answering these questions will provide a comprehensive understanding of PEV that is crucial to coming up with effective measures for preventing and resolving PEV, with broader implications for international security, the practice and policymaking on conflict management and peacebuilding, not just in Africa but also in other newly democratizing societies. Since the U.S. as a preeminent global power is enmeshed in international security it also has national security implications as the U.S. may intervene in cases of PEV that degenerate into civil war.