Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Authoritarian Accountability and the Regulation of Online Communication in China

乍一看，现有的研究似乎有一个现成的答案：政府删除有助于街头或其他形式抗议的文本或图像，这些抗议要么威胁社会稳定，要么破坏政府信誉。然而，有人认为，上述关于抗议活动的理论并不能解释政府当局放松审查的一些危机情况。相反，这个项目假设中国领导人，至少在一些突发事件中，在应对抗议相关内容的快速扩散时，采用了一种更微妙的策略。研究者的理论是，在问题领域，以及在中国领导人推动改革的利益（在环境、腐败和其他关键问题上）与主要公民团体的利益一致的时刻，领导人故意放松对网络媒体的控制。他们这样做是为了在备受瞩目的网络空间表明，他们对上述领域的公民要求负责。此外，领导人有时愿意这样做，即使冒着允许网络言论促进街头抗议或其他集体行动的风险。这个项目与威权政府对互联网的唯一关注是防止持不同政见者利用互联网挑战国家的观点形成了鲜明对比。虽然威权主义领导人确实担心互联网可能会赋予社会力量力量，从而威胁到他们对权力的控制，但像中国这样拥有更多资源和经验的政权也看到了利用社交媒体与不信任政府、不再相信共产主义或其他合法意识形态的中产阶级（在线）公民建立新联系的机会。这里提出的理论，如果是真的，将有助于回答过去二十年来政治科学的一个核心难题——为什么一些专制政权仍然强大，尽管历史上许多其他经历了快速发展的政权崩溃了？这个项目的智力价值与研究设计有关。为了检验这个问题，这个项目混合了定量和定性的研究方法。它采用了一种创新的方法，通过统计分析原始社交媒体数据（尤其是文本），并使用软件程序根据表达的情绪对这些文本进行分组，来衡量审查制度和公民在网上的言论。除了政治科学家之外，这项研究还涉及政策制定者和普通公众。华盛顿的中国政策界目前正在努力解决美国是应该寻求与中国接触，还是遏制中国的崛起。反过来，要理解中国的外部行为，就不能脱离中国共产党稳定的国内根源。因此，了解政府如何管理互联网对于制定有效的中国政策至关重要。除政策外，许多美国公民还想了解在信息审查的环境下，中国公民如何与他们的领导人互动，因为这些问题深深触及美国的言论自由和代议制政府的价值观。最后，虽然该项目关注的是中国，但它对两个类似的威权国家——俄罗斯和伊朗——也有影响，这两个国家对互联网进行审查，其国内的稳定对美国至关重要。

This project seeks to explain when and why the Chinese government censors the Internet. Existing research at first glance appears to have a ready answer: the government deletes text or images that contribute to street or other forms of protest that either a) threaten social stability, or b) undermine government credibility. Yet it is argued that the above theory about protest activity cannot explain some crisis situations in which government authorities relaxed censorship. Instead, this project posits that Chinese leaders, during at least some breaking incidents, employ a more nuanced strategy when responding to the rapid proliferation of protest-related content. The investigator theorizes that in issue areas, and in moments where Chinese leaders' interests in promoting reforms (on the environment, corruption, and other key issues) align with those of key citizen groups, leaders deliberately loosen control over online media. They do so in order to demonstrate, in high-profile online space, that they are accountable to citizen demands in the above areas. Leaders, moreover, are sometimes willing to do so even at the risk of allowing online speech to facilitate street protests or other collective actions.This project serves as counterpoint to the idea that authoritarian governments' sole concern with the Internet is in preventing dissenters from using it to challenge the state. While authoritarian leaders indeed fear the Internet's potential to empower social forces that might threaten their hold on power, regimes with more resources and sophistication, like China, also see an opportunity to use social media to forge new connections with middle-class (online) citizens who do not trust the government, and who no longer believe in Communism or other legitimating ideologies. The theory proposed here, if true, would help answer a central puzzle in political science over the past twenty years - why do some authoritarian regimes remain strong, despite the historical collapse of many others that underwent rapid development?The intellectual merits of the project are associated with the research design. To test this question, the project mixes quantitative and qualitative research methods. It takes an innovative approach to measuring both censorship, and what citizens are saying online by statistically analyzing raw social media data - especially text, and using software programs to group such text by sentiments expressed. The project also involves interviews with four groups in China - journalists, Internet professionals, bloggers, and government officials, who each deal with censorship.This research concerns policymakers and the general public, in addition to political scientists. The China policy community in Washington is currently grappling with whether the United States should seek to engage China, or contain its rise. China's external behavior, in turn, cannot be understood apart from the domestic sources of Chinese Communist Party stability. Therefore, understanding how the government manages the Internet is vital to crafting an effective China policy. Beyond policy, many U.S. citizens are curious to understand how Chinese citizens interact with their leaders in a censored information environment, as such questions touch deeply on American values of free speech and representative government. Finally, while the project focuses on China, it has implications for two similar authoritarian states - Russia, and Iran - who censor the Internet and whose domestic stability is of vital interest to the United States.