Exchange Rates When Financial Markets Are Imperfect

我们知道，金融市场在决定不同国家货币之间的汇率方面发挥着重要作用。该奖项用于研究开发金融市场如何影响汇率的新模型。在现实世界中，金融市场并不总是符合完全竞争的框架。金融市场不完美的一个主要原因是，金融家承担风险的能力有限。研究人员将建立和分析一个全球资本流动模型，其中包括全球金融家作为国家之间资本流动的中介。研究小组将从这个模型中开发预测，然后根据数据测试预测。他们还将探讨政策含义，特别是针对金融市场失灵时期的政策。该项目提供了一个在存在不完善金融市场的情况下汇率的完整一般均衡模型。该团队从两期两国模型中汇率金融决定的基本理论开始，在该模型中，资本流动由融资者进行中介。汇率由资本流动和融资者承担货币风险的能力共同决定。然后，他们将这一框架扩展为一个更丰富的模型，将不完善资本市场中的冒险和金融中介等金融力量，与对生产、进出口的传统实体经济分析结合在一起。

We know that financial markets play an important role in determining exchange rates between different national currencies. This award funds research to develop a new model of how financial markets affect exchange rates. In the real world, financial markets do not always fit into the framework of perfect competition. One major reason why financial markets are imperfect is that financiers have a limited ability to bear risks. The researchers will build and analyze a model of global capital flows that includes global financiers as the intermediaries for capital flows between countries. The research team will develop predictions from this model and then test the predictions against data. They will also explore policy implications, especially policies for periods of dysfunctional financial markets.The project provides a full general equilibrium model of exchange rates in the presence of imperfect financial markets. The team starts with a basic theory of exchange rate financial determination in a two-period two-country model where capital flows are intermediated by financiers. Exchange rates are jointly determined by capital flows and financiers' capacity to bear currency risk. They then expand this framework to a richer model that combines financial forces such as risk taking and financial intermediation in imperfect capital markets with the traditional real economy analysis of production, import and export.