AGS-PRF: Towards an Improved Understanding of the Dynamical Effects of Sea Ice Loss on the Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Circulation and Extreme Weather

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This award provides funds for a 2-year Postdoctoral Research Fellowship for the PI, who will work under the mentorship of Professor Paul O'Gorman at the Massachussetts Institute of Technology. The research topic is the effect of sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation and extreme weather in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Three issues in the atmospheric response to sea ice decline are considered: 1) The location, strength, seasonality, and variability of the eddy-driven jet and associated storm tracks, as well as the dominant modes of atmospheric variability such as the Northern Annular Mode; 2) The propagation of atmospheric waves and eddies, and atmospheric blocking patterns; and 3) Extreme weather phenomena such as heat waves, cold spells, extreme precipitation, droughts, and intense extratropical cyclones. The research is conducted through analysis of observations and climate model simulations of sea ice decline and atmospheric circulation change. A hierarchy of models at varying levels of complexity is used to identify and isolate specific climate processes that determine the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. Factors to be considered include a possible relationship between sea ice loss and the mean available potential energy of the midlatitude atmosphere, the reduction in pole-to-equator temperature gradient accompanying sea ice loss, and changes in the timing of the seasonal cycle.The work has broader impacts given the societal consequences of extreme weather events and the benefits that would come for a better understanding of how these events may change due to the dramatic loss of sea ice in the Arctic. In addition, the project supports a postdoctoral researcher who is at the beginning of his scientific career, thereby providing for the future scientific workforce in this area. An undergraduate student will also be engaged in the research and mentored by the PI.