Doctoral Dissertation Research: Development of a Spatially Explicit Resilience and Vulnerability Model Through Integration of Modeling and Stakeholder Perspectives

该博士论文研究项目将加强现有的脆弱性和复原力评估方法，并开发新的方法，以帮助利益攸关方通过针对确定为最关键地区的减灾措施，提高沿海地区的复原力。 该项目将通过将政治经济学，政治生态学，社会理论和弹性理论的理论观点纳入主要是应用科学领域来推进脆弱性和弹性科学。 该项目将提供新的认识，了解社会条件，如贫困，如何影响或使个人更容易或更不容易受到危险事件的影响或具有复原力。该项目还将设法确定进行脆弱性评估的最有效尺度，供社区一级的减灾和规划工作使用。 在实施该项目期间产生的灾害风险产出将被用作空间上明确的复原力和脆弱性模型的投入，以衡量县以下一级的社区复原力和脆弱性。 该模型的结果将分发给研究县内的社区，作为制定和实施缓解和适应战略的资源，社区可以切实执行这些战略，以促进具有复原力的发展。 虽然该项目将在佛罗里达萨拉索塔县进行，但项目结果将在更广泛的沿海环境中发挥作用。 该项目开展过程中开发的理论框架、模型和方法将为社区提供更高分辨率的建模方法和产出，用于社区一级的灾害、脆弱性和复原力评估。 该项目还有可能确定缓解战略，通过制定和针对非结构性缓解政策，更具体地帮助边缘化人口，这些政策在历史上一直没有得到充分利用，尽管它们更直接地造福于社区中脆弱性最高的许多地区。 这些适应性战略可以促进恢复，特别是在难以减轻灾害暴露的社区。 作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将为有前途的学生提供支持，使其能够建立强大的独立研究事业。该项目将借鉴将物理灾害模型与社会科学模型相结合的理论框架，以改进现有的脆弱性和恢复力科学方法。 博士生将使用地球物理灾害暴露建模和社会科学措施来估计社区脆弱性，并确定有潜力提高复原力的领域。 她将制定更高分辨率灾害程度的衡量标准，并将其纳入空间上明确的复原力和脆弱性模型，以更好地确定社区内哪些地方更有可能发生灾害影响。 除了进行测量的条件，影响危害的威胁在不同的地方，并将其与她的数据纳入空间明确的弹性和脆弱性模型，学生将从事与利益相关者的会议，以确定发生在县外的外部指标，如联邦救济资金和国家计划，以及影响整体脆弱性的风险认知指标。

This doctoral dissertation research project will enhance existing and develop new vulnerability and resilience assessment methods to assist stakeholders in increasing their resilience in coastal areas by targeting hazard mitigation to areas identified as most critical. The project will advance vulnerability and resilience science by incorporating theoretical perspectives from political economy, political ecology, social theory, and resilience theory into what has predominately been an applied science field. The project will provide new understanding regarding how social conditions, such as poverty, influence or predispose individuals to being more or less vulnerable or resilient to hazardous events. The project also will seek to identify the most effective scale for conducting vulnerability assessments for use in community-level hazard mitigation and planning. The hazard exposure outputs generated during the conduct of this project will be used as inputs in a spatially explicit resilience and vulnerability model to measure community resilience and vulnerability at the sub-county level. The results from this model will be distributed to communities within the study county as a resource for the development and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies that communities can feasibly implement to facilitate resilient development. Although the project will be conducted in Sarasota County, Florida, project results will have utility in a much broader range of coastal settings. The theoretical framework, models, and methods developed during the conduct of this project will provide communities with higher-resolution modeling methods and outputs for community-level hazard, vulnerability, and resilience assessment. This project also has the potential to identify mitigation strategies that more specifically assist the marginalized population through development and targeting of non-structural mitigation policies that historically have been underutilized even though they more directly benefit many areas of communities where vulnerability is highest. These adaptive strategies could facilitate recovery, especially in communities where hazard exposure is difficult to mitigate. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.This project will draw on a theoretical framework that integrates physical hazards models with social science models to improve existing vulnerability and resilience science methods. The doctoral student will use geophysical hazard exposure modeling and social science measures to estimate community vulnerability and to identify areas of potential for enhancing resilience. She will develop measures of the extent of higher-resolution hazards, which will be incorporated into the spatially explicit resilience and vulnerability model to better determine where hazards impacts are more likely to occur within a community. In addition to conducting measurements of conditions that affect the threat of hazards in different locales and their incorporation with her data into the spatially explicit resilience and vulnerability model, the student will engages in meetings with stakeholders to determine external indicators that occur outside of the county, such as federal relief funding and state programs, as well as risk-perception indicators that influence overall vulnerability.