RAPID: Ukrainian Politics Panel Survey

该项目调查了公民在面对政治动荡时如何形成态度并做出政治选择。该研究的中心是了解乌克兰公民如何在四个制度危机的背景下做出总统选举选择：(1)普通代表渠道的削弱以及抗议活动和革命的相关上升；(2)对乌克兰民族认同、领土完整和国家地位构成的挑战；(3)在“欧洲”和“俄罗斯”之间的被迫选择；(4)现有国家机构的失败或颠覆。为了解决这些问题，乌克兰主要调查机构基辅国际社会学研究所（KIIS）将开展一项具有全国代表性的小组调查。调查委员会将分两轮进行，第一轮在2014年5月25日总统选举之前进行，第二轮在总统选举之后进行。该项目的知识价值与它使用小组调查来调查与抗议和革命，投票选择和身份相关的问题有关。面板设计将使研究人员能够直接研究在这一高度不确定时期个人倾向的变化模式，通过测量投票前后的许多倾向来解决投票选择中的问题，并研究选民如何根据竞选和选举中的动态进行战略性选择。该研究还将包括一组嵌入式实验，利用随机划分样本的机会，并向不同的子样本提出相同问题的不同版本。这一特征在研究对极端民族主义政党/候选人的支持、俄罗斯等外部行为体影响乌克兰人偏好的能力，以及强大的历史象征主义对态度的影响方面尤为重要。该项目的更广泛影响尤其与其对外交政策的影响有关。自上世纪90年代前南斯拉夫战争结束以来，乌克兰危机是对欧洲稳定的最严重威胁，一些人担心危机可能会蔓延到现在是欧盟和北约成员国的国家。通过独特地揭示这场危机的公众舆论维度，特别是通过研究个人层面随着时间的变化模式，该项目将为寻求了解这场危机、制定更好政策的美国政策制定者以及乌克兰人自己提供重要信息。

The project investigates how citizens formulate attitudes and make political choices when confronted with political upheaval. The study centers around understanding how Ukraine's citizens make election choices for president in the context of four institutional crises: (1) the weakening of ordinary channels of representation and the associated rise in protest activity and revolution; (2) the challenge that has been posed to Ukrainian national identity, territorial integrity, and statehood; (3) the forced choice between "Europe" and "Russia"; and (4) the failure or subversion of existing state institutions. To address these questions, a nationally representative panel survey will be carried out by Ukraine's premier survey agency, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). The panel will consist of two waves, the first conducted prior to the May 25, 2014 presidential election and the second conducted immediately after it. The intellectual merits of the project are connected with its use of a panel survey to investigate questions related to protest and revolution, vote choice, and identity. The panel design will enable researchers directly to study patterns of change in individuals' dispositions during this highly uncertain period, to address issues in vote choice by measuring many dispositions both before and after a vote, and to study how voters choose strategically due to dynamics in the campaign and election. The study will also include set of embedded experiments, taking advantage of the opportunity to randomly divide the sample and ask different versions of the same question to the different resulting subsamples. This feature is particularly important in studying support for ultranationalist parties/candidates, the ability of external actors like Russia to shape Ukrainian preferences, and the impact of potent historical symbolism on attitudes. The broader impacts of the project are especially connected with its implications for foreign policy. Ukraine's crisis represents the most serious threat to European stability since the end of the wars in former Yugoslavia back in the 1990s, with some fearing it could spread to countries that are now in the EU and NATO. By shedding unique light on the public opinion dimensions of this crisis, especially by studying patterns of change at the individual level over time, the project will contribute vital information for American policymakers seeking to understand the crisis and develop better policy as well as for Ukrainians themselves.