Developing Theory to Understand Variation in Behavioral Responses to Human-induced Rapid Environmental Change

几乎所有的生物(包括人类)现在都生活在一个被环境变化改变的世界里，包括气候变化、栖息地变化和接触外来物种(例如，新的捕食者或疾病)。一些物种在应对环境变化和数量下降方面表现不佳，而另一些物种则欣欣向荣(例如，入侵或城市化的害虫)。生物体对与环境变化相关的新条件作出良好行为反应的相对能力往往对它们在现代世界中的成功具有关键影响。更好地了解对环境变化的行为反应的变化将有助于促进衰退物种的恢复，更有效地控制害虫物种，并在新的变化展开之前预测生态问题。该项目开发了新的理论来解释观察到的模式，并对人类诱导的快速环境变化(HIREC)的行为反应的变化产生新的预测。因此，它有可能极大地促进我们对当今最重要的生态问题之一的科学理解。该项目汇集了一组行为/进化生态学建模人员，以开发理论来更好地理解行为对环境变化的反应的变化。为了解释对新情况的适应性和非适应性反应，建模团队将使用信号检测理论、更好的对冲(通才-专家)理论、适应性可塑性理论和适应性学习理论的新扩展。该团队还将以新的方式整合这些建模方法，以产生对基本行为生态学和理解对环境变化的反应的新见解。最后，模型师将与经验主义者合作，回顾相关的实证文献，并撰写关于环境变化行为反应的概念性概述论文。该项目提供了大量机会，培训新一代年轻科学家在数学和生物之间的接口。该项目还将包括研讨会，不仅有团队和学员参加，还将有数十名其他经验学家和应用科学家参加。该项目将创建一个新的网站，其特点是：1)模型、预测和影响的摘要，2)向经验学家提供关于哪些模型适用于特定情景的建议，3)计算机代码，包括适合在本科课程中使用的用户友好的模型。最后，该项目将寻求合作开发课堂模块，作为美国大部分地区已经采用的下一代科学标准的一部分。

Almost all living organisms (including humans) are now living in a world altered by environmental change including climate change, habitat change, and exposure to exotic species (e.g., novel predators or diseases). Some species are coping poorly with environmental change and declining in numbers, while others are thriving (e.g., invasive or urbanized pests). The relative ability of organisms to respond well behaviorally to novel conditions associated with environmental change often has critical effects on their success in the modern world. A better understanding of variation in behavioral responses to environmental change will be useful for enhancing the recovery of declining species, for more efficiently controlling pest species, and for anticipating ecological problems before new changes unfold. This project develops new theory to explain observed patterns and generate new predictions on the variation in behavioral response to human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC). It thus has potential to substantially advance our scientific understanding of one the most important ecological issues of our time. The project brings together a team of behavioral/evolutionary ecology modelers to develop theory to better understand variation in behavioral responses to environmental change. To explain both adaptive and maladaptive responses to novel situations, the modeling team will employ novel extensions of signal detection theory, bet hedging (generalist-specialist) theory, adaptive plasticity theory, and theory on adaptive learning. The team will also integrate these modeling approaches in fresh ways to generate novel insights for both basic behavioral ecology and for understanding responses to environmental change. Finally, the modelers will collaborate with empiricists to review relevant empirical literature and to write conceptual overview papers on behavioral responses to environmental change. The project offers abundant opportunities for training a new generation of young scientists on the interface between math and biology. The project will also include workshops that will involve not just the team and mentees, but also dozens of other empiricists and applied scientists. The project will create a new website that will feature: 1) summaries of the models, predictions, and implications, with 2) advice to empiricists on which models to apply to specific scenarios, and 3) computer code including user-friendly models suitable for use in undergraduate courses. Finally, the project will seek to collaboratively develop classroom modules for potential implementation as part of Next Generation Science Standards that have been adopted in much of the United States.