Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Influence of Statistical Forecasting and Sustainability in Urban Transportation Planning

土木工程师和规划师在发展高效的城市交通系统时经常受到一系列社会、文化和环境问题的挑战。在快速城市化的情况下，收集可靠的统计数据尤其困难。该项目训练一名研究生进行严格的、以经验为基础的科学实地考察，询问规划者如何平衡交通网络对环境和社会可持续性的需求与不断增长的城市人口的需求。研究结果将对负责组织和监督运输系统的城市规划者有用。在加州大学欧文分校基思·墨菲博士的指导下，谢丽尔·多伊奇将探索统计预测如何影响新公共交通系统的规划。她建议通过研究印度德里正在进行的快速公交网络规划来实现这一目标，初步研究表明，这是一个理想的地点，因为印度城市日益增长的城市化和机动化（对私家车的依赖）代表了世界各地发展中国家规划者面临的挑战。交通规划依赖于人口统计和经济数据来预测未来的出行，评估多种设计和票价定价方案，并相应地建设基础设施。在印度城市，由于城市化的快速发展和收集可靠数据的挑战，这些预测变得复杂。城市基础设施也引发了对社会和经济公平以及城市权利的担忧。在这项研究中，研究者将利用她作为人类学家和交通规划师的双重训练来帮助实践交通规划师更好地理解建立在他们的统计模型和决策过程中的文化假设。数据收集策略包括使用传统的人种学方法，如在城市规划部门和管理城市交通基础设施的人员中进行参与性观察，以及与交通规划人员和政策制定者以及这些交通网络中其他城市利益相关者进行分层访谈。

Civil engineers and planners are frequently challenged by a range of social, cultural, and environmental issues in developing efficient urban transportation systems. And gathering reliable aggregates of statistical data is particularly challenged under circumstances of rapid urbanization. This project, which trains a graduate student in conducting rigorous, empirically-grounded scientific fieldwork, asks how planners balance the needs for environmental and social sustainability in transportation networks with the demands of a growing urban population. The results will be useful to urban planners tasked with the responsibility of organizing and overseeing transportation systems.Cheryl Deutsch, under the supervision of Dr. Keith Murphy of the University of California, Irvine, will explore the ways in which statistical forecasts influence planning for new public transit systems. She proposes to do this by studying on-going planning for a Bus Rapid Transit network in Delhi, India, which preliminary research suggests is an ideal site, as increasing urbanization and motorization (dependence on private cars) in Indian cities are representative of challenges faced by planners in developing countries around the world. Transportation planning depends on demographic and economic data to forecast future travel, assess multiple design and fare pricing scenarios, and build infrastructure accordingly. These forecasts are complicated in Indian cities by the rapid pace of urbanization and the challenges of collecting reliable data. Urban infrastructure also raises concerns of social and economic equity, as well as rights to the city. In this study, the researcher will use her dual training as an anthropologist and transportation planner to help practicing transportation planners better understand the cultural assumptions built into their statistical models and decision-making processes. Data collection strategies include the use of conventional ethnographic methods such as participant observation within city planning departments and among those managing urban transportation infrastructures, as well as interviews with transportation planners and policymakers, and stratified range of other urban stakeholders in these transportation networks.