Hazard SEES: An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment and Management in Responding to Land Falling Hurricanes in a Changing Climate

飓风，通过其强风、暴雨和风暴潮，在世界范围内造成巨大的破坏和生命损失。最近发生的灾害（如2013年的台风海燕、2012年的飓风桑迪、2011年的飓风艾琳和2005年的卡特里娜）凸显了美国和世界对登陆飓风的严重脆弱性。这些风暴的影响在未来几十年可能会恶化，因为沿海地区的快速发展加上飓风活动可能增加和海平面上升。该项目正在开发一个基于基础物理学的评估和管理飓风风险的新框架。该框架将适用于所有受飓风影响的沿海地区。我们正在对纽约、新泽西、北卡罗来纳州和佛罗里达州的沿海地区进行案例研究，以评估和比较这些地区的飓风危害，估计这些危害在未来可能如何演变，并制定应对这些危害的工程和政策策略。这项研究涉及多个学科，包括地球科学、工程和建筑、社会、行为和经济科学，并正在帮助培养自然灾害领域的下一代专家。这项研究的结果将支持美国和世界各地沿海地区的重建和增强弹性。由于飓风现象的多尺度特征，基于物理的飓风风险评估具有挑战性。这项研究正在推进飓风和气候科学，目的是从根本上加强飓风风险分析。我们正在开发两个独立的飓风气候学模型，以研究飓风的频率、强度和规模如何在气候变化中演变。我们正在应用观测分析和数值模拟来研究飓风、风暴潮和降雨的危害，包括它们的时空结构、相互作用以及对海岸、陆地、温带过渡和气候变化的影响。我们正在开发基于物理、观测评估和计算效率高的灾害模型，以评估各种气候情景下的联合灾害概率；我们还创建了一个多灾害模型，描述了飓风灾害的复合影响。结合对联合危害和脆弱性的改进估计，可以从多个角度进行风险评估，以支持先进的风险管理。该项目的风险管理部分侧重于美国国家洪水保险计划的政策和沿海洪水缓解工程设计。这些工具对于减轻飓风风险和增强沿海地区的恢复能力至关重要，本项目将在气候变化的新背景下发展这些工具。

Hurricanes, through their strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, cause much damage and loss of life worldwide. Recent disasters (e.g., Typhoon Haiyan in 2013; Hurricanes Sandy in 2012, Irene in 2011 and Katrina in 2005) underscore the significant vulnerability of the U.S. and the world to land-falling hurricanes. The impacts of these storms may worsen in coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with possibly increasing hurricane activity and sea level rise. This project is developing a new framework for assessing and managing hurricane risk based on fundamental physics. The framework will be applicable to all hurricane-afflicted coastal areas. We are carrying out case studies for the coastal areas in New York, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida to assess and compare hurricane hazards in these areas, estimate how these hazards may evolve in the future, and develop engineering and policy strategies for coping with these hazards. This research involves several disciplines, including geosciences, engineering and architecture, and social, behavioral and economic sciences, and is helping to prepare next-generation of specialists in the fields of natural hazards. The results from this research will support the rebuilding and increased resiliency of coastal areas in the U.S. and around the world. Physics-based hurricane risk assessment is challenging, due to multi-scale features of the phenomena. This research is advancing hurricane and climate science, with the objective of fundamentally enhancing hurricane risk analysis. We are developing two independent hurricane climatology models to investigate how hurricane frequency, intensity, and size will evolve in a changing climate. We are applying observational analysis and numerical modeling to study hurricane wind, surge, and rainfall hazards, including their spatial and temporal structures, their interaction, and effects of the coast, land, extratropical transition, and changing climate. We are developing physics-based, observationally-evaluated, and computationally-efficient hazard models to assess joint hazard probabilities under various climate scenarios; we are also creating a multi-hazard model of wind and water vulnerability describing the compound impacts of hurricane hazards. Combining the improved estimation of the joint hazards and vulnerability, risk assessment can then be carried out to support advanced risk management from various perspectives. The risk management component of this project is focusing on the policies of the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program and engineering designs for coastal flood mitigation. These instruments are critical in mitigating hurricane risk and increasing coastal resiliency, and this project will develop them in the new context of changing climate.