CAREER: Understanding and Designing Structures for Hurricane Wind and Surge Hazards under Changing Climate Conditions

飓风和风暴潮给美国许多沿海地区带来了重大危害(例如，1992年的安德鲁飓风、2005年的卡特里娜飓风和2012年的桑迪飓风)。由于海平面和气候条件的变化，飓风的危害可能会加剧。建筑物和其他民用基础设施的使用寿命通常为50年或更长时间，在此期间，它们可能会受到海平面和气候条件变化的影响。然而，目前用于评估结构性能的模型往往忽略了这些影响，因为它们是基于飓风危险和荷载的气候不变建模。这项学院早期职业发展(Career)计划拨款的研究目标是调查飓风风和风暴潮危害在气候变化条件下如何变化，并制定一个新的框架，以了解这种变化将如何影响结构性能。将对波士顿、纽约市、迈阿密、坦帕和加尔维斯顿等沿海特大城市进行案例研究，并将支持提高美国沿海的复原力。该项目将帮助培养下一代劳动力，通过培训、参与和激励各级和背景的学生来减轻飓风对建筑物的影响。这项研究将建立一个新的飓风气候学模型，该模型可以产生大量具有物理相关特征(成因、轨迹、强度和大小)的合成风暴，其驱动因素是全面观测或预测的气候条件变化。飓风气候学模型将与先进的灾害建模相结合，以调查飓风风和风暴潮(包括海平面上升)危害在未来将如何单独和联合变化。将生成一个大型综合数据库，其中包含各种预测气候下的联合飓风和风暴潮事件，用于评估在非平稳风和风暴潮危险随着气候条件变化而变化的情况下的结构寿命性能和目标失效概率。这项研究生成的风浪数据集和分析工具将在NSF支持的NHERI DesignSafe-CI.org门户网站上提供。除了积极吸引本科生和研究生参与这项研究外，该项目还将把这项研究整合到普林斯顿大学的本科生风险分析课程和研究生风力工程课程中，并为高中生设立关于海岸复原力的暑期实习。

Hurricane winds and storm surge present major hazards to many coastal areas in the United States (e.g., Hurricanes Andrew of 1992, Katrina of 2005, and Sandy of 2012). These hurricane hazards will likely intensify due to changing sea levels and climate conditions. Buildings and other civil infrastructure often have a service life of 50 years or longer, during which period they may be exposed to the effects of changing sea levels and climate conditions. However, current models for assessing structural performance often neglect these effects, as they are based on climate-invariant modeling of hurricane hazards and loads. The research goals of this Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) Program grant are to investigate how hurricane wind and storm surge hazards can vary under changing climate conditions and to formulate a new framework to understand how this variation will impact structural performance. Case studies will be carried out for coastal megacities such as Boston, New York City, Miami, Tampa, and Galveston and will support increased coastal resiliency in the United States. The project will contribute to a next-generation workforce for mitigating the impact of hurricanes on structures by training, engaging, and motivating students of all levels and backgrounds. This research will establish a new hurricane climatology model that can generate large numbers of synthetic storms with physically correlated characteristics (genesis, track, intensity, and size) driven by comprehensive observed or projected changing climate conditions. The hurricane climatology model will be coupled with advanced hazard modeling to investigate how hurricane wind and storm surge (including sea-level rise) hazards will vary individually and jointly in the future. A large synthetic database of joint hurricane wind and storm surge events under various projected climates will be generated for assessing lifetime structural performance and target probability of failure in the face of nonstationary wind and storm surge hazards varying with changing climate conditions. Wind and surge datasets and analytical tools generated by this research will be made available on the NSF-supported NHERI DesignSafe-CI.org web portal. In addition to actively engaging undergraduate and graduate students in the research, this project will integrate the research into an undergraduate risk analysis course and a graduate wind engineering course at Princeton University, and also establish a summer internship on coastal resilience for high school students.