Hazards SEES: Improved prediction of geomagnetic disturbances, geomagnetically induced currents, and their impacts on power distribution systems

重大的太阳风暴引起地球磁场的扰动（地磁扰动或GMDs），进而在电力传输系统中感应电流。这些地磁感应电流（gic）对社会所依赖的配电系统构成了潜在的灾难性威胁。例如，1989年3月的一场太阳风暴引发了gic，导致变压器级联故障和大范围停电，影响了魁北克数百万人。该项目旨在定量了解GICs和gmd对电网的影响，这对于帮助公用事业行业提前规划和降低风险至关重要。通过开发全面的建模和分析方法，从空间天气开始，以对电网运行的影响结束，我们正在推动新的有用的分析工具和见解。我们还通过分析直接磁场测量和变压器中性电流之间的耦合，提高了科学界对地球的理解。最后，我们的外展工作是向公众提供有关太阳、高层大气、空间天气危害、地球地球物理特性和电网等关键概念的信息。你的项目旨在提高对严重太阳风暴对我们的配电系统影响的控制过程的科学理解。该团队正在研究太阳风驱动因素与地面磁场扰动之间的关系，开发改进的感应电场模型，并提高对GIC危害的预测能力。该团队正在开发算法，既可以推进感应电场科学，又可以作为大型电力系统中GIC危害的预测工具，包括变压器加热、损坏和电压稳定性丧失。目前正在开发、增强和验证影响模型，以便更好地预测gmd对电力系统的实时响应和长期恢复能力的影响。

Non-technical summarySignificant solar storms cause disturbances in Earth's magnetic field (geomagnetic disturbances or GMDs), which in turn induce currents in electric power transmission systems. These geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) pose a potentially catastrophic threat to the power distribution systems on which society depends. For example, a solar storm in March 1989 triggered GICs that caused cascading transformer failures and widespread blackouts that affected millions of people in Quebec. This project is developing a quantitative understanding of the impacts that GICs and GMDs can have on the power grid, which is critical to helping the utility industry plan ahead and reduce risk. Through developing a comprehensive modeling and analysis approach, beginning with space weather and ending with impacts to grid operation, we are driving new useful analytic tools and insights. We are also improving the scientific community's understanding of the Earth through analysis of coupling between direct magnetic field measurements and transformer neutral currents. Finally, our outreach efforts are providing information to the public about critical concepts related to the sun, the upper atmosphere, space weather hazards, Earth's geophysical properties, and the power grid. Technical SummaryOur project is intended to improve the scientific understanding of the processes governing the impacts on our power distribution system of severe solar storms. The team is studying the relationship between solar wind drivers and magnetic field perturbations on the ground, developing improved models of induced electric fields, and enhancing prediction capabilities for GIC hazards. The team is developing algorithms that both advance the science of induced electric fields and operate as a predictive tool of GIC hazards in the bulk power system, including transformer heating and damage and loss of voltage stability. Impact models are being developed, enhanced, and validated to provide better prediction of the effects of GMDs on power systems for both real-time response and longer-term resilience.