Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Debit Cards, Cash Transfers, and Savings: Evidence from Mexico

在美国国内外，有相当多的成年人无法获得储蓄账户等正规金融服务。在可用的情况下，储蓄产品用于减少收入波动，为商业投资积累资金，支付意外的卫生紧急情况，并投资于儿童教育。正规银行账户之外的储蓄可能很困难：现金在手或床垫下更容易花掉。因此，设计提高储蓄的方法可以提高美国人和发展中国家的穷人的生活水平和经济成果。在将其大规模现金转移计划“机会”扩大到城市地区后，墨西哥政府为该计划的城市受助人开设了银行账户，并将他们的福利直接存入这些账户。2009年，政府开始将借记卡与这些由政府银行运营的银行账户挂钩。本博士论文项目利用这一独特的数据收集机会，通过在墨西哥城市地区逐步推出借记卡来确定其对项目接受者储蓄的因果影响。它将使用多种来源的数据，包括计划受助人三年内的银行账户余额、存款和取款，以及七年内有关其消费、收入和资产的住户调查数据。一个理论模型预测，通过使计划接受者能够在最近的任何银行的自动取款机上存取他们的账户，而不是最近的政府银行分支机构，借记卡将通过两个渠道增加储蓄。首先，借记卡降低了获取储蓄的非货币交易成本，使储蓄更具吸引力。其次，他们提供了一种技术来建立对银行的信任，这种信任最初在墨西哥的穷人中很低：当储蓄时，收款人可以在任何一台自动取款机上反复检查她的余额，以确保银行没有偷走她的钱。此外，对于那些远离政府银行分支机构但距离其他银行自动取款机足够近的人来说，这种影响应该更大，对于那些在家里存钱更困难的人来说，这种距离效应应该更大（例如，因为丈夫拿走并花掉了储蓄的现金，而这些钱总是给女人的）。每个家庭与最近的自动取款机和最近的政府银行分行之间的距离是检验这些假设的关键变量。将我的面板数据中的家庭人口普查块代码与人口普查块形状文件以及自动取款机和政府银行分支机构的地理坐标相结合，我将估计每个家庭到最近的自动取款机和政府银行分支机构的距离，并使用这些变量的变化和借记卡的推出来测试模型的预测。这项研究的结果将为美国政府和其他寻求增加金融包容性的国家提供重要的见解。

A significant number of adults in the US and outside lack access to formal financial services such as savings accounts. When available, savings products are used to decrease income volatility, accumulate money for business investments, pay for unexpected health emergencies, and invest in children's education. Saving outside of formal bank accounts can be difficult: cash in hand or under the mattress is more easily spent. Hence, devising means to improve savings can lead to better living standards and economic outcomes Americans and the poor in developing countries. After expanding its large cash transfer program Oportunidades to urban areas, the Mexican government opened bank accounts for urban recipients of the program and paid their benefits directly into these accounts. In 2009, the government began tying debit cards to these bank accounts, which are run by a government bank. This doctoral dissertation project exploits this unique data collection opportunity by using the gradual rollout of debit cards in urban localities in Mexico to identify their causal impact on savings among program recipients. It will use data from a number of sources, including bank account balances, deposits, and withdrawals in program recipients' bank accounts over three years, as well as household survey data on their consumption, income, and assets over seven years.A theoretical model predicts that, by enabling program recipients to access their accounts at the nearest ATM of any bank rather than the nearest government bank branch, debit cards will increase savings through two channels. First, debit cards reduce the non-monetary transaction cost of accessing savings, making saving more attractive. Second, they provide a technology to build trust in the bank, which is initially low among Mexico's poor: while saving, a recipient can repeatedly check her balance at any ATM to make sure the bank hasn't stolen her money. Furthermore, these effects should be greater for those living far from government bank branches but sufficiently close to other banks' ATMs, and this distance effect should be greater for those who have more difficulty saving at home (for example, because the husband takes and spends the saved cash, which is always given to women). The distances between each family and the nearest ATM and nearest government bank branch are key variables to test these hypotheses. Combining Census block codes for families in my panel data with Census block shape files and the geographic coordinates of ATMs and government bank branches, I will estimate the distance from each household to the nearest ATM and government bank branch, and use variation in these variables and the rollout of debit cards to test the model's predictions. The results from this study will provide important insights for the American government and other countries seeking to increase financial inclusion.