Doctoral Dissertation Research in DRMS: Testing the Links between Savings, Credit, Betting, and Consumption among Small Business Owners

这项研究考察了小企业主的消费、储蓄、信贷和投注决策之间的联系。在撒哈拉以南非洲的大部分地区，国际足球比赛的合法投注呈爆炸式增长，在许多国家的年轻人中广受欢迎。这些参与者中有许多是小企业主和户主。该项目着眼于高强度体育博彩对参与者的企业和家庭的影响。此外，该项目还假设储蓄和信贷限制有助于赌博的吸引力。虽然规避风险是人类行为的一种普遍假设，但它可能不适用于严重的财务约束。对参与者来说，大量流动性注入的承诺是赌博的主要吸引力之一。实地研究将在乌干达进行，那里的一项试点表明，据报告，非正规部门近一半的男性参与体育博彩，投注者的平均投注强度为每周收入的10%。这项研究每周对乌干达首都的小企业主进行一次有代表性的调查，同时跟踪他们的收入、消费和赌博行为。一组随机干预允许确定储蓄和信贷约束对投注行为之间的因果关系，以及有关回报率的信息处理。这项研究建立在发展经济学、行为经济学和心理学领域的见解基础上。该项目是在人口接近贫困线的发展中国家环境中探索与寻求风险的赌博活动的原因和后果有关的主题的首批努力之一。

This research examines the links between consumption, savings, credit, and betting decisions among small business owners. Legal betting on international football matches has exploded across much of sub-Saharan Africa and is wildly popular among young men in many countries. Many of these participants are small enterprise owners and household heads. The project looks at the impacts of high intensity sports betting on participants' businesses and families. In addition the project hypothesizes that savings and credit constraints contribute to the allure of betting. While risk-aversion is a commonly made assumption about human behavior, it may not hold in a setting with severe financial constraints. The promise of a large infusion of liquidity is one of the main stated appeals of betting for participants. The field research will take place in Uganda where a pilot has showed that nearly half the men in the informal sector reported to participate in sports betting with a mean intensity among bettors of 10% of weekly earnings. The study creates a representative weekly panel of small enterprise owners in Uganda's capital while tracking earnings, consumption, and betting behavior. A set of randomized interventions allows for the identification of a causal relationship between savings and credit constraints on betting behavior as well as information treatments about rate of return. This research builds on insights from the development economics, behavioral economics, and psychology fields. The project is one of the first efforts to explore topics relating to the causes and consequences of risk-seeking betting activity in a developing country setting with a population close to the poverty line.