Dynamic Aspects of Offshoring

过去20年的技术进步促进了生产的国际分割。对于许多产品来说，价值链的不同部分现在都是在海外生产的，在某些情况下，生产分布在地球仪的各个地方。有大量的理论和经验文献试图解释这种离岸外包并确定其影响。一些作者建议遵循比较优势的解释，其他人则追求不那么标准的解释。这些文献的总体信息是，有各种渠道可以使离岸外包有利可图，但它也指出了分配方面的影响，主要是工资影响。绝大多数的贡献使用静态模型，抽象的不确定性。在这个项目中，我们计划通过对离岸外包采取动态的观点，并在探索离岸外包的解释和影响时考虑到不确定性，为这一文献做出贡献。动态模型使我们能够区分研发、实物资本或教育投资的短期和长期后果。引入不确定性使我们能够将离岸外包解释为应对生产力或需求冲击和波动的一种手段。虽然这些解释对实践者来说相对明显，但迄今为止在理论文献中很少受到关注。显然，考虑到动态关系和不确定性，也会产生与离岸外包有关的新的政策影响。因此，该项目还旨在解决国际贸易和投资领域政策干预的潜在原因。

Technological advances over the past two decades have facilitated an international fragmentation of produc-tion. For many products, different slices of the value chain are now being produced offshore, in some cases production is spread out all around the globe. There is a large body of theoretical and empirical literature that tries to explain such offshoring and to identify its effects. Some authors suggest explanations following lines of comparative advantage, others pursue less standard lines of explanation. The overall message from this literature is that there are various channels through which offshoring might be gainful, but it also points out distributional implications, mainly from wage effects. The vast majority of contributions use static models that abstract from uncertainty. In this project we plan to contribute to this literature by taking a dynamic perspective on offshoring and by allowing for uncertainty when exploring explanations and effects of offshoring. Dynamic models allow us to distinguish between short-run and long-run consequences that derive from investments in research and development, physical capital, or education. Introducing uncertainty allows us to explain offshoring as a means to deal with shocks to, and volatility of, productivity or demand. While relatively obvious to the practitioner, these lines of explanation have so far received very scant attention in the theoretical literature. Clearly, considering dynamic relationships and uncertainty also gives rise to novel policy implications related to offshoring. Hence, the project is also intended to address potential reasons for policy intervention in the area of international trade and investment.