EAGER: Renewables: Market Mechanism for Managing Uncertainties Caused by High Levels of Renewable Generation

电网中的可再生能源具有内在的可变性，预测其发电量变化的能力是非常有限的。这种可变性提出了关于高水平可再生能源发电系统中电力的适当定价机制的问题。该项目的研究目标是探索一种新的基本市场机制，以管理高水平可再生能源发电或可再生能源（RES）造成的不确定性。该机制的关键概念是基于不确定性边际价格（UMP）对不确定源和灵活源进行收费，UMP表示在特定位置免疫下一个不确定性增量的边际成本。管理不确定性是实现可再生能源无缝高水平渗透必须解决的关键问题之一。该项目制定的明确价格信号和激励措施有可能消除分布式可再生能源的关键障碍，从而促进能源独立，减少对环境的影响，为实现低碳经济的目标做出贡献。提出的非常规货币政策概念丰富了电力市场理论的基础，为未来的研究打开了新的大门。该研究项目将首次提供明确的价格信号，并利用市场机制使用稳健的优化框架来管理任何程度的不确定性。相比之下，传统的储备方法是基于经验和启发式的，在高可再生能源情景下无法工作。该研究项目旨在管理不确定性的来源（不确定性减少）和资源侧（不确定性调节）。UMP为不确定性和灵活性相关的市场操作和投资提供了重要的价格信号。在短期内，拟议的市场机制为RES运营商提供了提高预测准确性（即减少不确定性）的激励。它还鼓励现有的灵活资源（例如燃气发电机组）为适应不确定性贡献储备。从长远来看，拟议的机制为选址新的灵活资源（如能源储存）提供价格信号，以适应可再生能源普及率增加带来的不确定性。

Renewable energy resources in electric power grids are inherently variable, and the ability to predict the variation in generated power is quite limited. This variability raises issues regarding proper pricing mechanisms for electric power in systems with high levels of renewable generation. The research objective of this project is to explore a new fundamental market-based mechanism for managing the uncertainty caused by high levels of renewable generation or renewable energy sources (RES). The key concept of the proposed mechanism is to charge uncertain sources and credit flexible sources based on Uncertainty Marginal Price (UMP), which represents the marginal cost of immunizing the next increment of uncertainty at a specific location. Management of uncertainty is one of the key issues that must be dealt with to have seamless high-level penetration of RES. The clear price signals and incentives developed in this project have the potential to remove a critical barrier to distributed RES, which in turn will promote energy independence and reduce environmental impact, contributing to the goal of a low-carbon economy. The proposed UMP concept enriches the fundamentals of electricity market theory and opens a new door for future research.This research project will, for the first time, provide explicit price signals and utilize a market mechanism to manage any level of uncertainty using a robust optimization framework. In comparison, the traditional reserve approach is based on experience and heuristics that cannot work under the high renewables scenario. The research project aims to manage uncertainty both at the source side (uncertainty reduction) and the resource side (uncertainty accommodation). UMP provides important price signals for both themarket operation and investment related to uncertainty and flexibility. In the short term, the proposed market-based mechanism provides incentives for RES operators to improve forecasting accuracy (i.e., to reduce uncertainties). It also provides incentives for existing flexible resources (e.g., gas-fired generating units) to contribute reserves for uncertainty accommodation. In the long term, the proposed mechanism provides price signals for siting new flexible resources (e.g., energy storage) to accommodate uncertainties from increasing RES penetration.